Regional Multihazard Risk-Assessment Method for Overhead Transmission Line Structures Based on Failure Rate and a Bayesian Updating Scheme
Publication: Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 37, Issue 1
Abstract
In this study, a new method for multihazard risk assessment of an overhead transmission line grid located over a relatively large area is proposed. The main task of this method was to assess annual risk for overhead transmission lines using failure rates estimated from historical failure data and then modifying these estimated failure rates by reanalysis data and a Bayesian updating scheme. For this purpose, a comprehensive database of structural failures was collected for climatic, geologic, and man-made hazards to overhead transmission lines. Risk denotes the probability of exceeding the sum of direct losses due to repair costs of overhead transmission line components and indirect losses due to energy not supplied or unplanned power-off after outages. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated in a case study of a target area. The results showed that climatic hazards contributed the most to total losses in the study area. Furthermore, when using indirect losses to estimate the annual loss, the average annual loss may increase by up to about 45% relative to direct losses, depending on the type of hazard. This demonstrates the importance of investigating indirect losses from structural failures in the risk assessment of overhead transmission lines.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or codes that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The present study was carried out as a Niroo Research Institute (NRI) research project. The authors would like to thank the NRI for supporting this research.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 37 • Issue 1 • February 2023
Copyright
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 10, 2022
Accepted: Jul 26, 2022
Published online: Nov 4, 2022
Published in print: Feb 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Apr 4, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Analysis (by type)
- Bayesian analysis
- Case studies
- Climates
- Disaster risk management
- Electric power
- Energy engineering
- Energy infrastructure
- Engineering fundamentals
- Environmental engineering
- Failure analysis
- Forensic engineering
- Infrastructure
- Lifeline systems
- Methodology (by type)
- Power transmission
- Power transmission lines
- Research methods (by type)
- Risk management
- Statistical analysis (by type)
- Structural engineering
- Structural failures
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