Abstract
Coastal transportation systems are extremely vulnerable due to the coupled impacts of storm surge, waves, and inundation. Existing literature has developed coastal fragility models for bridges. However, to date, flood fragility models for coastal roadways are lacking. For this purpose, the current study proposes a data-driven fragility model based on logistic regression for coastal roadways, with failure probability conditioned on distance to shoreline and inundation duration, using hindcast data for Hurricane Ike. In addition, the effect of bridge and roadway damage on transportation network performance is investigated through a case study on Galveston Island, Texas. The results indicate the spatial distribution of storm impacts on the transportation network, with select roads highly vulnerable if they are located within a couple of hundred meters of the shoreline. In addition, considering roadway damage in addition to bridge damage alone, which is the current state of the art, can have a significant impact on decreasing the performance of the transportation network. Such analyses shed light on potential policy or risk mitigation practices that are expected to be increasingly important in the future as sea level rise further reduces roadway distance to the shoreline or as storm intensity and frequency changes.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This research was conducted as part of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Center of Excellence for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning under Cooperative Agreement Nos. 70NANB15H044 and 70NANB20H008 between the NIST and Colorado State University. The content expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions or views of NIST. The authors would also like to acknowledge the valuable inputs by Dr. Ioannis Gidaris, former postdoctoral research fellow at Rice University, regarding initial scoping of the research and statistical analysis.
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Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 35 • Issue 6 • December 2021
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© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Nov 11, 2020
Accepted: Jun 29, 2021
Published online: Sep 15, 2021
Published in print: Dec 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Feb 15, 2022
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