Consequence of Failure: Neurofuzzy-Based Prediction Model for Gas Pipelines
Publication: Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 30, Issue 4
Abstract
Overall performance of energy infrastructure in the United States has been assessed as D+. More than 65% of America’s energy is transported through the oil and gas pipelines, which have experienced more than 10,000 failures during the last three decades. There is a critical need for a failure prediction tool that can forecast the consequences of the hazardous failures. Failure of gas pipelines has become the subject of interest for some studies in the past. Previous studies mainly focused on physical models that need inspection data or developed subjective models. This paper aims at developing a model to forecast the consequences of the potential failures of such pipes using the historical data of the U.S. gas pipes network. The model applies a neurofuzzy technique in order to recognize the existing pattern among the input and output variables. It estimates the financial consequences of various failure scenarios for specific pipes in terms of size and specified minimum yield strength. For this purpose, a bowtie model is developed, and all possible scenarios of failure are identified. Various combinations of the identified factors and different number and types of membership functions, are applied in order to optimize the model’s efficiency. The developed model is validated with an approximate accuracy of 80%. This study assists practitioners and academics who are working on the risk assessment of gas pipelines to plan for their lifecycle inspection.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to express their appreciation to Dr. Naser Badri, Senior Safety Engineer, for providing professional advice on developing the proposed model.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 30 • Issue 4 • August 2016
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 26, 2015
Accepted: Jun 18, 2015
Published online: Aug 17, 2015
Discussion open until: Jan 17, 2016
Published in print: Aug 1, 2016
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