Application of Gamma Process for Building Deterioration Prediction
Publication: Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 27, Issue 6
Abstract
Deterioration trends derived using discrete condition data are commonly used in management of civil infrastructure assets. However, the high variability of condition data often makes the derivation of deterministic models difficult and unreliable. Therefore, reliability-based methods such as Markov chain have been used to establish trends using highly variable condition data. Although these methods have been explored in assets such as bridges and roads, the use of reliability-based methods in deterioration prediction of buildings is less common. The second-largest class of infrastructure assets owned by the local governments in Australia is community buildings. Because most existing community buildings are maturing, the local government agencies seek more reliable asset management strategies. Physical condition–based forecasting is a major component of such asset management approaches. This paper presents the development of a reliability-based methodology for the deterioration prediction of community buildings. The gamma process is considered to be an appropriate approach for predicting building element deterioration because of the associated temporal variability of degradation. The gamma deterioration process presented in this paper is a stochastic process with independent nonnegative increments having a gamma distribution with an identical scale parameter. Building inspection data from one of the local governments in Victoria are used in the model. Further, the paper discusses the analysis of the data and practical application.
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Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge the insightful discussions and guidance provided by Dr. Malihe Abdollahiani at the School of Math and Geospatial Sciences at RMIT University. Funding provided by the Australian Research Council and partner organizations (Municipal Association of Victoria, Kingston City Council, Glen Eira City Council, City of Monash, Mornington Peninsula Shire Council, City of Greater Dandenong, and Brimbank City Council) is appreciated.
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Published In
Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 27 • Issue 6 • December 2013
Pages: 763 - 773
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 31, 2011
Accepted: Jul 23, 2012
Published online: May 18, 2013
Published in print: Dec 1, 2013
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