Extrapolation for Future Maximum Load Statistics
Publication: Journal of Bridge Engineering
Volume 16, Issue 4
Abstract
The use of short-term load data to extrapolate or project remote future maximum load has been practiced in structural design code development and/or calibration. However, this approach has not been adequately evaluated or validated because of the absence of long-term data, which is important for the structures’ safety governed by these codes. In this paper, the application of such extrapolations to highway bridge design is studied by taking advantage of available long-term truck weight data obtained from the weigh-in-motion technique. A new extrapolation method is proposed from the understanding of the importance of the load probability distribution’s high tail. This approach significantly reduces the mathematical length of the extrapolation/projection and thus increases its reliability. Also presented in this paper are application examples. In addition, the extrapolation process proposed is evaluated with quantitative indexes. The application of a temporal extrapolation/projection can now be evaluated by using these indexes for its reliability and appropriateness.
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Acknowledgments
The financial support of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program, the Michigan Department of Transportation, and China Communications Construction is gratefully appreciated. Transportation agencies in the United States and China have generously provided the assistance of WIM data gathering and processing, without which the reported work could not have been completed. Mr.Tapan Bhatt and Ms. Lang Liu ably assisted with some of the calculation and draft work performed in this study, and their efforts are acknowledged.
References
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Bridge Engineering
Volume 16 • Issue 4 • July 2011
Pages: 527 - 535
Copyright
© 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 16, 2010
Accepted: Aug 26, 2010
Published online: Sep 4, 2010
Published in print: Jul 1, 2011
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