Probabilistic Analysis Methodology for Thermal Protection System during Conceptual Design
Publication: Journal of Aerospace Engineering
Volume 32, Issue 6
Abstract
This paper presents a probabilistic analysis methodology for a nonablative thermal protection system (TPS) of spacecraft at the conceptual design stage. The probabilistic analysis focuses on uncertainty characterization and uncertainty in failure prediction. TPS selection and sizing using sequential quadratic programming design optimization are first performed to provide the nominal values of the distribution parameters for uncertainty parameters such as the allowable temperature limits and thickness of TPS materials. Multi-input and multi-output support vector machines are utilized to approximate the thermal responses when failure modes are constructed, which dramatically reduces computational effort. Generalized subset simulation is used to estimate the failure probabilities at all nodes with a single simulation run, which further reduces the computational burden. The proposed methodology is applied to a lifting body vehicle model and a spacecraft model for conceptual design. Difficulties encountered and the performance of the method are investigated.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful for the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project No. U1533109), funding from the Jiangsu Innovation Program for Graduate Education (Grant No. KYLX15_0243), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities. The first two authors would like to acknowledge the support from the China Scholarship Council for their stay at overseas universities as visiting scholars (Yuanzhuo Ma at the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty at the University of Liverpool, Hong-Shuang Li in the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at Missouri University of Science and Technology).
References
Arora, N., G. M. Allenby, and J. L. Ginter. 1998. “A hierarchical Bayes model of primary and secondary demand.” Marketing Sci. 17 (1): 29–44. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.17.1.29.
Au, S. K., J. Ching, and J. L. Beck. 2007. “Application of subset simulation methods to reliability benchmark problems.” Struct. Saf. 29 (3): 183–193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2006.07.008.
Bose, D., M. J. Wright, and G. E. Palmer. 2006. “Uncertainty analysis of laminar aeroheating predictions for Mars entries.” J. Thermophys. Heat Transfer 20 (4): 652–662. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.20993.
Bradford, J., and J. Olds. 2006. “Thermal protection system sizing and selection for RLVs using the sentry code.” In Proc., 42nd AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conf. and Exhibit. Reston, VA: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).
Chen, P., D. Liu, K. Chang, L. Tang, X. Gao, A. Bhungalia, and W. Shyy. 2006a. “Aerothermodynamic optimization of hypersonic vehicle TPS design by POD/RSM-based approach.” In Proc., 44th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting and Exhibit, 777. Reston, VA: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).
Chen, Y. K., and F. Milos. 1996. “Solution strategy for thermal response of nonablating thermal protection systems at hypersonic speeds.” In Proc., 34th Aerospace Sciences Meeting and Exhibit, 615. Reston, VA: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).
Chen, Y.-K., T. Squire, B. Laub, and M. Wright. 2006b. “Monte Carlo analysis for spacecraft thermal protection system design.” In Proc., 9th AIAA/ASME Joint Thermophysics and Heat Transfer Conf. Reston, VA: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).
Cowart, K., and J. Olds. 1999. “Integrating aeroheating and TPS into conceptual RLV design.” In Proc., 9th Int. Space Planes and Hypersonic Systems and Technologies Conf. and 3rd Weakly Ionized Gases Workshop, 4806. Reston, VA: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).
Cowart, K., and J. Olds. 2000. “TCAT-A tool for automated thermal protection system design.” In Proc., AIAA Space 2000 Conf. and Exposition, 5265. Reston, VA: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).
Dec, J. A., and R. A. Mitcheltree. 2002. “Probabilistic design of a Mars sample return earth entry vehicle thermal protection system.” In Proc., 40th Aerospace Sciences Meeting and Exhibit, 910. Reno, NV: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).
Deepak, B., W. Michael, and G. Tahir. 2004. “Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of thermochemical modeling for Titan atmospheric entry.” In Proc., 37th AIAA Thermophysics Conf., 2455. Reston, VA: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).
Gnoffo, P. A., K. J. Weilmuenster, H. H. Hamilton, D. R. Olynick, and E. Venkatapathy. 1999. “Computational aerothermodynamic design issues for hypersonic vehicles.” J. Spacecraft Rockets 36 (1): 21–43. https://doi.org/10.2514/2.3430.
Li, H. S., Y. Z. Ma, and Z. Cao. 2015. “A generalized subset simulation approach for estimating small failure probabilities of multiple stochastic responses.” Comput. Struct. 153 (2015): 239–251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compstruc.2014.10.014.
Matsumura, T., R. T. Haftka, and B. V. Sankar. 2011. “Reliability estimation including redesign following future test for an integrated thermal protection system.” In Proc., 9th World Congress on Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization, 14–17. Berlin: Springer.
McGuire, M. K., J. V. Bowles, L. H. Yang, D. J. Kinney, and C. D. Roberts. 2004. “TPS selection and sizing tool implemented in an advanced engineering environment.” In Proc., 42nd AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting and Exhibit, 342. Reston, VA: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).
Olds, J. R., and K. Cowart. 2001. A method of integrating aeroheating into conceptual reusable launch vehicle design: Evaluation of advanced thermal protection techniques for future reusable launch vehicles. Moffett Field, CA: NASA Ames Research Center.
Ravishankar, B. 2011. “Uncertainty analysis of integrated thermal protection system with rigid insulation bars.” In Proc., 52nd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conf., 1767. Reston, VA: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).
Sepka, S. A., and M. Wright. 2011. “Monte Carlo approach to FIAT uncertainties with applications for Mars science laboratory.” J. Thermophys. Heat Transfer 25 (4): 516–522. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.49804.
Smarslok, B., R. Haftka, and N. Kim. 2006. “Taking advantage of separable limit states in sampling procedures.” In Proc., 47th AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials Conf., 1632. Reston, VA: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).
Smarslok, B. P. 2009. Measuring, using, and reducing experimental and computational uncertainty in reliability analysis of composite laminates. Gainesville, FL: Univ. of Florida.
Tobin, S. A., and J. A. Dec. 2015. “Probabilistic design demonstration of a flexible thermal protection system for a hypersonic inflatable aerodynamic decelerator.” In Proc., 53rd AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting, 1895. Reston, VA: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).
Villanueva, D. 2013. “Reliability based design including future tests and multi-agent approaches.” Ph.D. dissertation, Dept. of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering. Gainesville, FL: Univ. of Florida.
Wright, M. J., D. Bose, and Y.-K. Chen. 2007a. “Probabilistic modeling of aerothermal and thermal protection material response uncertainties.” AIAA J. 45 (2): 399–410. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.26018.
Wright, M. J., J. H. Grinstead, and D. Bose. 2007b. A risk-based approach for aerothermal/TPS analysis and testing. Neuilly-sur-Seine, France: NATO Research and Technology Organisation (RTO).
Xu, S., X. An, X. Qiao, and L. Zhu. 2014. “Multi-task least-squares support vector machines.” Multimedia Tools Appl. 71 (2): 699–715. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11042-013-1526-5.
Xu, S., X. An, X. Qiao, L. Zhu, and L. Li. 2013. “Multi-output least-squares support vector regression machines.” Pattern Recognit. Lett. 34 (9): 1078–1084. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patrec.2013.01.015.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Aerospace Engineering
Volume 32 • Issue 6 • November 2019
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 25, 2018
Accepted: Mar 27, 2019
Published online: Jul 31, 2019
Published in print: Nov 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Dec 31, 2019
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.