Novel Assessment Model for the Launch Success Ratio for Lunar Exploration
Publication: Journal of Aerospace Engineering
Volume 28, Issue 5
Abstract
A successful launch is the first step in a successful lunar exploration (LE) mission. Because spacecraft are very expensive, it is difficult to conduct sufficient flight tests to assess the launch success ratio (LSR) for the LE. Instead, the LSR needs to be comprehensively assessed using simulation tests with several large data samples and flight tests with small data samples. However, the data distribution in these different tests may not come from the same population, and the large-sample simulation test information may dominate the small-sample flight test information. Aimed at these problems, this paper proposes an LSR assessment model for the LE. The model introduces reliability measures to more accurately reflect the differences between the data populations, uses a goodness-of-fit test to check the compatibility of the simulation test data and the flight test data and to calculate the corresponding reliability, and combines the prior simulation test data distribution and the flight test data to estimate the final LSR using Bayesian statistical inference. A theoretical analysis and simulation tests illustrate how the proposed model can overcome the problem of reconciling different data sources with different populations, successfully estimate the LSR for an LE, and solve the problem of large-sample data dominating small-sample data.
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Acknowledgments
This work is supported by a Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 71401136; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No. 2014M552375. The authors are indebted to the editors and reviewers for the valuable comments and suggestions.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
Journal of Aerospace Engineering
Volume 28 • Issue 5 • September 2015
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 15, 2014
Accepted: Sep 9, 2014
Published online: Oct 16, 2014
Discussion open until: Mar 16, 2015
Published in print: Sep 1, 2015
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