Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Sliding Displacement of Slopes: Scalar and Vector Approaches
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VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 134, Issue 6
Abstract
Sliding block displacements often are used to evaluate the potential for ground failure due to slope instability. The procedures used to assess sliding block displacement typically use deterministic or pseudoprobabilistic approaches, in which the uncertainties in the expected ground motion and resulting displacement are either ignored or not treated in a rigorous manner. Thus, there is no concept of the actual hazard associated with the computed displacement. This paper presents a fully probabilistic framework for assessing sliding block displacements. The product of this analysis is a displacement hazard curve, which provides the annual rate of exceedance, , for a range of displacement levels. The framework considers two procedures that will yield a displacement hazard curve: (1) a scalar hazard approach that utilizes a single ground motion parameter and its associated hazard curve to compute permanent displacements; and (2) a vector hazard approach that predicts displacements based on two (or more) ground motion parameters and the correlation between these parameters. The vector approach reduces the displacement hazard significantly, as compared with the scalar approach, because of the reduction in the variability in the displacement prediction. Comparison of the fully probabilistic approach with an approach using probabilistically derived ground motions reveals that using a ground motion for a given hazard level does not produce a displacement level with the same hazard.
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Acknowledgments
This work benefited from interactions with Professor Julian Bommer, Dr. Peter Stafford, and Dr. Fleur Strausser at Imperial College, London and Dr. Norman Abrahamson of Pacific Gas and Electric, Co. Financial support was provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Department of the Interior, under USGS Grant No. UNSPECIFIED06HQGR0057. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the writers and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the United States Government.
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Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 134 • Issue 6 • June 2008
Pages: 804 - 814
Copyright
© 2008 ASCE.
History
Received: May 15, 2007
Accepted: Oct 2, 2007
Published online: Jun 1, 2008
Published in print: Jun 2008
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