Model Uncertainty of Shear Wave Velocity-Based Method for Liquefaction Potential Evaluation
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 131, Issue 10
Abstract
In this paper, the issue of model uncertainty is examined in detail within the framework of the first-order reliability method (FORM). The focus of the paper is on the characterization of the uncertainty of a shear wave velocity-based simplified model for liquefaction potential evaluation developed by Andrus and Stokoe. This simplified model is expressed as a boundary curve that defines liquefaction resistance as a function of the corrected shear wave velocity. The uncertainty of this simplified model is represented by a lognormal random variable, and characterization of the model uncertainty mainly involves the determination of its two statistics, namely, the mean and the coefficient of variation. A trial-and-error procedure is used to determine the two statistics of the model uncertainty based on a Bayesian mapping function that is calibrated with a database of case histories. This procedure is shown to be effective in the present study, and the uncertainty of the Andrus and Stokoe’s model is characterized. With the known model and parameter uncertainties, the probability of liquefaction can be determined through a routine FORM analysis.
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Acknowledgments
The study on which this paper is based was supported by the National Science Foundation through Grant No. NSFCMS-0218365. This financial support is gratefully acknowledged. The views and conclusions presented in this paper are those of the writers and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the National Science Foundation. The anonymous Journal reviewers are greatly appreciated for their thorough and constructive comments. Dr. Wilson Tang of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and Dr. Samuel Eng Hui Khor of the Probabilistic Design and Optimization Group, ANSYS, Inc., are thanked for their valuable comments regarding model uncertainty. However, the writers are solely responsible for the results and opinions presented in this paper.
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Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 131 • Issue 10 • October 2005
Pages: 1274 - 1282
Copyright
© 2005 ASCE.
History
Received: Jul 8, 2003
Accepted: Mar 4, 2005
Published online: Oct 1, 2005
Published in print: Oct 2005
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