Probabilistic Evaluation of Earthquake-Induced Slope Failure
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 124, Issue 11
Abstract
When there is an estimate of the probability of static failure for a set of slopes, based on historical records, maps, and subjective judgment, it is often necessary to estimate the additional hazard presented by earthquakes. Combining the procedures of reliability analysis with conventional recurrence relations for horizontal earthquake accelerations leads to a simple formulation that is easily implemented on a spreadsheet. For simple failure modes the dynamic factor of safety is a simple function of the static factor of safety, the amplified acceleration, the slope of the failure surface, and the friction angle. Application of the technique to the slopes of the Montes de Caneja in Puerto Rico indicates that the additional risk due to earthquakes is about one tenth of the static probability of failure, but other sets of input parameters can give probabilities of failure during earthquakes that are comparable to the static values.
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Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 124 • Issue 11 • November 1998
Pages: 1140 - 1143
Copyright
Copyright © 1998 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Nov 1, 1998
Published in print: Nov 1998
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