Climate Model Simulation of Point Rainfall Frequency Characteristics
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 11, Issue 6
Abstract
Atmospheric scientists are continuously improving the capability of climate models to predict accurately the frequency of heavy precipitation events in a changing climate. A brief review of recent studies related to the accuracy of precipitation outputs from climate models indicated that most of them concentrate on spatially aggregated precipitation patterns rather than point rainfall frequency characteristics. To fill this gap, this verification study focused on point rainfall frequency characteristics and used the most recent climate model results (that is, results from a regional climate model known as CMM5, by Liang et al.). Both the conventional moving-window analyses and an alternative meteorological event-based approach were used in this study to examine more completely the capability of CMM5 in reproducing rainfall events as observed at individual points. It was found that CMM5 reproduced the major characteristics of point rainfall frequency distributions reasonably well. The meteorological event-based analyses proposed in this study also assisted in the identification of a minor but perhaps systematic bias on the part of CMM5 in overestimating days with small amounts of precipitation. The overall performance of the current generation of climate models as demonstrated in this study encourages more and wider uses of their results in hydrologic engineering.
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Acknowledgments
The writers gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided for this study by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. Daily RCM precipitation data for this study were provided by Dr. Xin-Zhong Liang of the Illinois State Water Survey, in Champaign, Illinois. The valuable suggestions and assistance provided by Dr. Liang contributed greatly to the completion of this study and are very much appreciated.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 11 • Issue 6 • November 2006
Pages: 547 - 554
Copyright
© 2006 ASCE.
History
Received: Jun 29, 2005
Accepted: Jan 31, 2006
Published online: Nov 1, 2006
Published in print: Nov 2006
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