Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis for the State of Michigan
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Volume 10, Issue 6
Abstract
Effective storm water management plans depend on reliable rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships. Due to the perception of high-intensity rainfall events as occurring more frequently than expected, the Michigan Dept. of Transportation (MDOT) commissioned a study to update rainfall IDF estimates for each of seven durations (1, 2, 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 h) and six recurrence intervals (2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years). In contrast to a traditional at-site frequency analysis using method of moments estimators, this study applied a regional frequency analysis approach based on -moments. Data were compiled from 76 hourly recording stations and 152 daily recording stations, and trend and outlier analyses were conducted on both annual maximum series (AMS) and partial duration series (PDS) data. With the entire state considered a homogeneous region, two regional index flood models were applied: a generalized Pareto distribution fit to PDS data (PDS/GPA model), and a generalized extreme value distribution fit to AMS data (AMS/GEV model). Verification of results indicated that the revised rainfall IDF estimates provide more reliable values than those previously used.
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Acknowledgments
This project was funded by MDOT. Patricia Schriner served as the project manager at MDOT. Fred Nurnberger, former Michigan State Climatologist, was responsible for compiling and processing the rainfall data. Software for the regional -moment analysis was provided by J. R. M. Hosking and J. R. Wallis. The authors appreciate the assistance and advice of Greg Link, Laura Gerold, Henry Santeford, and David Reed. Comments provided by Geoff Bonnin and one anonymous reviewer also helped to improve this paper. Any remaining errors are solely the authors’ responsibility.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 10 • Issue 6 • November 2005
Pages: 437 - 449
Copyright
© 2005 ASCE.
History
Received: Jul 14, 2003
Accepted: Dec 20, 2004
Published online: Nov 1, 2005
Published in print: Nov 2005
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