Incorporation of Climate Change in Water Availability Modeling
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 10, Issue 5
Abstract
The state of Texas recently implemented a water-availability modeling (WAM) system to support planning and regulatory activities. River basin hydrology is represented in the WAM system by sequences of historical monthly naturalized streamflows and net reservoir evaporation rates. This paper describes a case study investigation of the potential effects of climate-change on assessments of water-supply capabilities and focuses on whether and how climate change considerations should be incorporated in the WAM system. A modeling approach was adopted to explore the impacts of climate change on hydrologic and institutional water availability for the numerous water users who depend on supplies provided by the Brazos River Basin. Analyses of historical naturalized streamflows indicate hidden but significant multiple-year cycles but no long-term trends during the twentieth century. A climate model and watershed hydrology model are used to adjust the WAM system hydrology to reflect anomalous climate during 2040–2060. The future climate scenario generally results in decreased mean streamflows and greater variability. However, the effects on water availability vary significantly in different regions of the river basin and among water users.
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Acknowledgment
This research was funded wholly or in part by the National Institute for Global Environmental Change through the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed herein are those of the writers and do not necessarily reflect the view of the DOE.
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Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 10 • Issue 5 • September 2005
Pages: 375 - 385
Copyright
© 2005 ASCE.
History
Received: Nov 18, 2003
Accepted: Dec 20, 2004
Published online: Sep 1, 2005
Published in print: Sep 2005
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