Linkages between Regional Trends in Monthly Maximum Flows and Selected Climatic Variables
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 9, Issue 4
Abstract
The potential impact of climate change on the hydrologic regime is a crucial question for water resources management. This study explores regional trends in monthly maximum flows and their possible linkages to trends in selected climatic variables in a hydroclimatologically homogeneous region. Trends are identified using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, with a modification for autocorrelated data. The regional significance of trends identified at the local scale is evaluated by means of a regional bootstrap algorithm. A trend significance index that accounts for both local and regional significance levels is proposed as a convenient tool for quantification and visual comparison of different trend results. The index is also used for identifying potential linkages between trends in hydroclimatic records. The plausibility of identified linkages is explored by means of cross-correlation analysis applied on residuals that are obtained from the original records after subtracting all serially dependent components. An uncertainty in regional trend analysis resulting from different observation periods is presented and quantified by calculating trend significance indices for several scenarios of different locations and lengths of a common observation period shifted on a timescale. The results show significant changes in the intraannual flood regime in the case study area of southern British Columbia. A regionally, strongly significant increase in the spring air temperature shifts the timing of the snowmelt process, resulting in a significant increase in early spring maximum flows and a significant decrease in late spring maximum flows. An autumn decrease in flows is related to increasing air temperature in the preceding summer months, which tends to dry out catchments more intensively, and is also related to precipitation activity in the previous months. The regional trend results are highly sensitive to the location and length of a given regional observation period on a timescale. Possible sources of the uncertainty in a low frequency climatic variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are discussed.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Barlow, M., Nigam, S., and Berbery, E. H.(2001). “ENSO, Pacific Decadal variability, and U.S. summertime precipitation, drought, and streamflow.” J. Clim., 14(9), 2105–2128.
Bloomfield, P. (2000). Fourier analysis of time series. An introduction, 2nd Ed., Wiley, New York, 261.
Burn, D. H.(1994). “Hydrologic effects of climatic change in west-central Canada.” J. Hydrol., 160(1–4), 53–70.
Burn, D. H., and Hag Elnur, M. A.(2002). “Detection of hydrologic trend and variability.” J. Hydrol., 255(1–4), 107–122.
Cayan, D. R., Redmond, K. T., and Riddle, L. G.(1999). “ENSO and hydrologic extremes in the western United States.” J. Clim., 12(9), 2881–2893.
Cunderlik, J. M., and Burn, D. H.(2002). “Local and regional trends in monthly maximum flows in southern British Columbia.” Can. Water Resour. J., 27(2), 191–212.
Darken, P. F., Holtzman, G. I., Smith, E. P., and Zipper, C. E.(2000). “Detecting changes in trends in water quality using modified Kendall’s tau.” Environmetrics, 11(4), 423–434.
Dietz, E. J., and Killeen, T. J.(1981). “A nonparametric multivariate test for monotone trend with pharmaceutical applications.” J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 76, 169–174.
Douglas, E. M., Vogel, R. M., and Kroll, C. N.(2000). “Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: Impact of spatial correlation.” J. Hydrol., 240(1–2), 90–105.
Environment Canada (1989). “Ecoclimatic regions of Canada.” Ecological Land Classification Series, No. 23, Supply and Services Canada, 118.
Fremlin, G., ed. (1974). The national atlas of Canada, Ashton-Potter, Toronto, 254.
Hamed, K. H., and Rao, A. R.(1998). “A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data.” J. Hydrol., 204(1–4), 182–196.
Hamlet, A. F., Huppert, D., and Lettenmaier, D. P.(2002). “Economic value of long-lead streamflow forecasts for Columbia River hydropower.” J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage., 128(2), 91–101.
Hare, F. K., and Thomas, M. K. (1979). Climate Canada, 2nd Ed., Wiley, New York, 230.
Harvey, K. D., Pilon, P. J., and Yuzyk, T. R. (1999). “Canada’s reference hydrometric basin network (RHBN).” Proc., Partnerships in Water Resources Management, CWRA 51st Annual Conf., Ont., Canada.
Hirsch, R. M., and Slack, J. R.(1984). “A nonparametric trend test for seasonal data with serial dependence.” Water Resour. Res., 20(6), 727–732.
Hosking, J. R. M., and Wallis, J. R. (1997). Regional frequency analysis: An approach based on L-moments. Cambridge University Press, New York, 223.
Hubbard, E. F., Landwehr, J. M., and Barker, A. R. (1997). “Temporal variability in the hydrologic regimes of the United States.” FRIEND’97—Regional Hydrology: Concepts and Models for Sustainable Water Resources Management, A. Gustard, ed., Vol. 246, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Oxfordshire, U.K.
Jain, S., and Lall, U.(2000). “Surface water and climate—magnitude and timing of annual maximum floods: Trends and large scale climatic associations for the Blacksmith Fork River, Utah.” Water Resour. Res., 36(12), 3641–3652.
Jain, S., and Lall, U.(2001). “Floods in a changing climate: Does the past represent the future?” Water Resour. Res., 37(12), 3193–3205.
Kendall, M. G. (1975). Rank correlation measures, Charles Griffin, London.
Leith, R. M. M., and Whitfield, P. H.(1998). “Evidence of climate change effects on the hydrology of streamflows in south-central B.C.” Can. Water Resour. J., 23(3), 219–231.
Lettenmaier, D. P., Wood, E. F., and Wallis, J. R.(1994). “Hydro-climatological trends in the continental United States 1948–1988.” J. Clim., 7(4), 586–607.
Lins, H. F., and Michaels, P. J.(1994). “Increasing U.S. streamflow linked to greenhouse forcing.” EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 75, 284–285.
Lins, H. F., and Slack, J. R.(1999). “Streamflow trends in the United States.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 26(2), 227–230.
Mann, H. B.(1945). “Non-parametric tests against trend.” Econometrica, 13, 245–259.
Mantua, N., Hare, S., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J. M., and Francis, R.(1997). “A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78(6), 1069–1079.
Mekis, E., and Hogg, W. D.(1999). “Rehabilitation and analysis of Canadian daily precipitation time series.” Atmos.-Ocean., 37(1), 53–85.
Piechota, T. C., and Dracup, J. A.(1996). “Drought and regional hydrologic variation in the United States: Associations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.” Water Resour. Res., 32(5), 1359–1373.
Piechota, T. C., Dracup, J. A., and Fovell, R. G.(1997). “Western U.S. streamflow and atmospheric circulation patterns during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).” J. Hydrol., 201(1–4), 249–271.
Pizarro, G., and Lall, U.(2002). “El Nino and floods in the U.S. West: What can we expect?” EOS, 83(32), 349–352.
Redmond, K. T., and Koch, R. W.(1991). “Surface climate and streamflow variability in the Western United States and their relationship to large-scale circulation indices.” Water Resour. Res., 27(9), 2381–2399.
Shabbar, A., Bonsal, B., and Khandekar, M.(1997). “Canadian precipitation patterns associated with the southern oscillation.” J. Clim., 10(12), 3016–3027.
Shumway, R. H., and Stoffer, D. S. (2000). Time series analysis and its applications, Springer, New York, 549.
Storch, H. von, and Navarra, A., eds. (1999). Analysis of climate variability: Applications of statistical techniques, Springer, New York, 342.
Vincent, L. A., and Gullett, D. W.(1999). “Canadian historical and homogeneous temperature datasets for climate change analyses.” Int. J. Clim., 19(13), 1375–1388.
Walker, G. (1931). “On periodicities in series of related terms.” Proc., R. Soc. London, Ser. A, 131–518.
Warner, R. M. (1998). Spectral analysis of time-series data, Guilford Press, New York, 225.
Westmacott, J. R., and Burn, D. H.(1997). “Climate change effects on the hydrologic regime within the Churchill-Nelson River Basin.” J. Hydrol., 202(1–4), 263–279.
Whitfield, P. H.(2001). “Linked hydrologic and climate variations in British Columbia and Yukon.” Environ. Monit. Assess., 67(1–2), 217–238.
Whitfield, P. H., and Cannon, A. J.(2000a). “Recent variations in climate and hydrology in Canada.” Can. Water Resour. J., 25(1), 19–65.
Whitfield, P. H., and Cannon, A. J. (2000b). “Recent variations in climate and hydrology of British Columbia and Yukon.” Int. Hydrological Programme, Contributions to IHP-V by Canadian Experts, Technical Documents in Hydrology No. 33. UNESCO, Paris, 1–21.
Wiken, E. B. (1986). “Terrestrial ecozones of Canada, Ecological land classification,” Series No. 19, Environment Canada, Hull, Quebec, 26.
Yue, S., Pilon, P., Phinney, B., and Cavadias, G.(2002). “The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series.” Hydrolog. Process., 16(9), 1807–1829.
Yue, S., Pilon, P., and Phinney, B.(2003). “Canadian streamflow trend detection: Impacts of serial and cross-correlation.” Hydrol. Sci. J., 48(1), 51–63.
Yule, G. U. (1927). “On a method of investigating periodicities in disturbed series, with special reference to Wolfer’s sunspot numbers.” Philos. Trans. A, 226–267.
Zhang, X., Harvey, K. D., Hogg, W. D., and Yuzyk, T. R.(2001). “Trends in Canadian streamflow.” Water Resour. Res., 37(4), 987–998.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 9 • Issue 4 • July 2004
Pages: 246 - 256
Copyright
Copyright © 2004 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 24, 2002
Accepted: Nov 12, 2003
Published online: Jun 15, 2004
Published in print: Jul 2004
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.