Impact of Streamflow Persistence on Hydrologic Design
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 7, Issue 3
Abstract
Conventional methods for estimating the average return period, and failure risk, R, generally ignore the impact of persistence in annual streamflows on associated probabilistic statements and streamflow statistics. Recent evaluations of streamflow observations indicate statistically significant serial correlations (persistence) associated with annual low flows in the United States. We define the average occurrence interval as the expected time to the first event, and we present a method for estimating and R in the presence of persistence. We show that for observed ranges of persistence, can be nearly 100% greater and R more than 20% lower than conventional estimates. This implies that the expected design life of a system is longer when persistence is taken into account. Also, by ignoring persistence, low flow quantiles may be underestimated by 50% or more. An evaluation of the effect of persistence on drought risk estimation across the U.S. is presented.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 7 • Issue 3 • May 2002
Pages: 220 - 227
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 20, 2001
Accepted: Sep 24, 2001
Published online: Apr 15, 2002
Published in print: May 2002
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