Practical Inverse Approach for Forecasting Nonlinear Hydrological Time Series
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 7, Issue 2
Abstract
This paper presents a practical inverse approach for forecasting nonlinear hydrological time series. The proposed approach involves: (1) calibrating the delay time, embedding dimension and number of nearest neighbors simultaneously using a single definite criterion, namely, optimum prediction accuracy; (2) verifying that the optimal parameters have wider applicability outside the scope of calibration; and (3) demonstrating that chaotic behavior is present when optimal parameters are used in conjunction with existing system characterization tools. The proposed approach was shown to be better than the standard approach for a theoretical chaotic time series (Mackey-Glass) and two real runoff time series (Tryggevaelde catchment in Denmark and Altamaha river at Doctortown, Ga.).
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 7 • Issue 2 • March 2002
Pages: 116 - 128
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 29, 2000
Accepted: Apr 19, 2001
Published online: Mar 1, 2002
Published in print: Mar 2002
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