Conditional Distributions of Ideal Reservoir Storage Variables
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 5, Issue 1
Abstract
Storage capacity, yield, and reliability of a reservoir are random variables. Conditional distributions of these variables are studied by Monte Carlo simulation for operating periods up to 100 years. It is shown that these distributions are affected by the length of the period of operation due to the assumption of an initially full reservoir. Results of the study will aid in the reliability based reservoir design by clarifying the connection among the storage variables. The relationship between the steady-state reliability and the probability of failure-free operation over an N-year planning period is also investigated, and it is shown that the effect of the initial storage can be neglected only when the ratio of regulation is low.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 5 • Issue 1 • January 2000
Pages: 52 - 58
History
Received: Jan 12, 1998
Published online: Jan 1, 2000
Published in print: Jan 2000
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