Infrastructure Risk Analysis Model
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 6, Issue 3
Abstract
One key element of our nation's infrastructure is our communities' drinking water supplies. Growing consumption by expanding populations, industrial and public pollution, the tragedies of both nature and human accidents, and the emergence of threats by domestic terrorists, disgruntled employees, and computer hackers continue to torment the nation. Add to these concerns the anxiety over Y2K failures of the utilities that control these systems; they all pose potential perils to freshwater reserves that local municipalities, state, and federal governments are obligated to protect. This paper serves to introduce the probabilistic infrastructure risk analysis model developed for a small community's water supply and treatment systems. The paper adopts a holistic approach to model a water infrastructure system's interconnectedness and interdependencies. This approach can also be used for other interconnected infrastructure elements such as physical facilities, electric power generation and distribution, and telecommunications. Insurance companies, municipal managers, utility companies, etc., can use this technique to develop scenarios and quantify the value of countermeasures.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Ang, A., and Tang, W. H. (1984). Probability concepts in engineering planning and design: Vol. II, decision, risk, and reliability, Wiley, New York.
2.
Armstrong, J. E. ( 1998). Course notes, SE401, Introduction to systems design, U.S. Military Academy, West Point, N.Y.
3.
Asbeck, E., and Haimes, Y. Y. (1984). “The partitioned multiobjective risk method.” Large Scale Sys., 6(1), 13–38.
4.
Ezell, B. C. ( 1998). “Risks of cyber attack to supervisory control and data acquisition for water supply.” MS thesis, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Va.
5.
Ezell, B. C., Farr, J. V., and Wiese, I. (2000). “Infrastructure risk analysis of municipal water distribution system.”J. Infrastruct. Sys., ASCE, 6(3), 118–122.
6.
Haimes, Y. Y. (1981). “Hierarchical holographic modeling.” IEEE Trans. on Sys., Man and Cybernetics, SMC-11(9).
7.
Haimes, Y. Y. (1998). Risk modeling, assessment, and management, Wiley, New York.
8.
Kaplan, S. (1997). “The words of risk analysis.” Risk Anal., 17(4).
9.
Lowrance, W. W. (1976). Of acceptable risk, William Kaufmann, Los Altos, Calif.
10.
National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee. ( 1997). “Information assurance task force risk assessment.” 〈http://www.ncs.gov/n5 _hp/reports/EPRA.html〉.
11.
Saaty, T. L. (1980). The analytic hierarchy process, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
History
Received: Jul 27, 1999
Published online: Sep 1, 2000
Published in print: Sep 2000
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.