Sensitivity Analysis in Reliability-Based Lifetime Performance Prediction Using Simulation
Publication: Journal of Materials in Civil Engineering
Volume 17, Issue 3
Abstract
The time-varying performance of deteriorating materials and structures can be simulated using probabilistic methods. The propagation of performance uncertainties is affected by the characteristics of input random variables. In general, the number of samples and/or their quality do not satisfy the rigorous statistical constraints required to obtain reliable probability distributions. This deficiency encountered at the beginning of assessment process can be alleviated later by investigating the importance of variables through variability and sensitivity analyses. These analyses help the identification of significant variables in a quantitative way. In this paper, evaluation of the time-varying performance of deteriorating materials and its effect on structures measured by the reliability index profile is addressed based on three aspects: (1) acquisition of statistical characteristics of input random variables from imperfect samples; (2) model-based simulation; and (3) evaluation of variability and sensitivity measures of the nondeterministic performance model. Examples are presented to illustrate these aspects.
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Acknowledgments
The partial financial support of the U.S. National Science Foundation through grants CMS-9872379, CMS-9912525, and CMS-0217290 and of the U.K. Highways Agency is gratefully acknowledged. The opinions and conclusions presented in this paper are those of the writers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring organizations.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Materials in Civil Engineering
Volume 17 • Issue 3 • June 2005
Pages: 296 - 306
Copyright
© 2005 ASCE.
History
Received: Apr 6, 2004
Accepted: Aug 6, 2004
Published online: Jun 1, 2005
Published in print: Jun 2005
Notes
Note. Associate Editor: Yunping Xi
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