Prediction Models for Annual Break Rates of Water Mains
This article is a reply.
VIEW THE ORIGINAL ARTICLEThis article has a reply.
VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 23, Issue 1
Abstract
Annual break rates are often used by municipalities as one of the most important criteria in rating the condition of water mains. This paper presents the development of deterioration models that predict the annual break rates of water mains considering pipe material, diameter, age, and length. The data used in this paper are collected from a Canadian municipality that has a large water distribution network. The collected data cover pipe break records of of water mains. Five multiple regression models are developed, which show robust statistical analysis. Twenty percent of break data were randomly selected for validation in which the developed models demonstrate satisfactory results. The research presented in this paper is expected to be useful to academics and practitioners (municipal engineers, consultants, and contractors) in analyzing deterioration trends of water mains.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The writers would like to thank Mr. Denis Gagnon and Mr. Denis Dufour for their support in providing the break data of Quebec city (Ste-Foy). The writers also wish to acknowledge the internal financial support provided by the Faculty of Engineering and Computer Science of Concordia University for this research.
References
Achim, D., Ghotb, F., and McManus, K. (2007). “Prediction of water pipe asset life using neural networks.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 13(1), 26–30.
Al-Aghbar, A. (2005). “Automated selected trenchless technology for the rehabilitation of water mains.” MS thesis, Dept. of Building, Civil, and Environmental Engineering, Concordia Univ., Canada.
American Water Works Association Research Foundation (AWWARF). (1996). Internal corrosion of water distribution systems, 2nd Ed., American Water Works Association, Denver, Colo.
Andreou, S. A., and Marks, D. H. (1986). “Maintenance planning strategies for large diameter cast-iron mains.” AWWA Conf. Synopsis, 365–372.
ASCE. (2005). “Report card for America’s infrastructure.” ⟨http://www.asce.org/reportcard/2005/page.cfm?id=24⟩ (Oct. 5, 2006).
Bainbridge, K. (2004). “Applied asset management strategies.” Proc., INFRA 2004, Montreal, Canada.
Cameron, A. (2005). “Prioritization of water distribution system renewal projects.” Proc., 57th Annual Conf. of the Western Canada Water and Wastewater Association, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.
Chlorine Chemistry Council Online Knowledge Center (C3). (1998). “Safe water delivered safely.” ⟨http://c3.org/chlorine_knowledge_center/safewater.html⟩ (Apr. 9, 2006).
Clark, R. M., Stafford, C. L., and Goodrich, J. A. (1982). “Water distribution systems: A spatial and cost evaluation.” J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt. Div., 108(3), 243–256.
Doherty, B. J. (1990). “Controlling ductile-iron water main corrosion: A preventative maintenance measure.” Mat. Perf., 29(1), 22–28.
Francis, C. (1994). “Sieving the evidence on leakage.” Water and waste treatment, DR Publications, London.
Green, B. M., Johnson, F., and De Rosa, J. (1992). “In situ cathodic protection of existing ductile iron pipes.” Mat. Perf., 31(3), 32–38.
Gummow, R. A. (1988). “Experiences with water main corrosion.” Proc., Joint Annual Conf. of the Ontario Section AWWA and OMWA, 1–41.
Herbert, H. (1994). “Technical and economic criteria determining the rehabilitation and/or renewal of drinking water pipelines.” Water Supply, 12(3/4), 105–118.
InfraGuide. (2002). “Deterioration and inspection of water distribution systems.” A best practice by the National Guide to Sustainable Municipal Infrastructure, Issue 1.0, ⟨http://www.infraguide.ca/lib/db2file.asp?fileid=4209⟩ (June 20, 2005).
Infrastructure Canada. (2004). Water infrastructure: Research for policy and program development, Research and Analysis Infrastructure Canada, Ont., Canada.
Isenor, G., and Lalonde, E. (2003). “City of Moncton water main transmission distribution system assessment study.” Submitted to the City of Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada by Dillon Consulting Limited and Harfan Technologies.
Jacobs, P., and Karney, B. (1994). “GIS development with application to cast iron main breakage rate.” Proc., 2nd Int. Conf. on Water Pipeline Systems, BHR Group Ltd., Edinburgh, Scotland.
Kettler, A. J., and Goulter, I. C. (1985). “An analysis of pipe breakage in urban water distribution networks.” Can. J. Civ. Eng., 12, 286–293.
Lewis, R. O. (1999). “A white paper review: History of use and performance of copper tube for potable water service.” Lewis Engineering and Consulting, Inc., ⟨http://www.wssc.dst.md.us/copperpipe/copperpipewp.cfm⟩ (Apr. 9, 2006).
McMullen, L. D. (1982). “Advanced concepts in soil evaluation for exterior pipeline corrosion.” Proc., AWWA Annual Conf., Miami, Fla.
Minitab. (2002). “Using best subsets regression.” Minitab Inc., Software Version 14.
Moselhi, O., and Fahmy, M. (2007). “Discussion of ‘Prediction of water pipe asset life using neural networks’ by D. Achim, F. Ghotb, and K. J. McManus.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 14(3), 272–273.
O’Day, K. (1982). “Organizing and analyzing leak and break data for making main replacement decisions.” J. Am. Water Works Assoc., 74(11), 589–594.
O’Day, K. (1989). “External corrosion in distribution systems.” J. Am. Water Works Assoc., 81(10), 45–52.
OFWAT. (2002). “Maintaining serviceability to customers in England and Wales—Development of spatial indicators for regulatory reporting.” ⟨http://www.ofwat.gov.uk/aptrix/ofwat/publish.nsf/AttachmentsByTitle/serv_spatial_may02.pdf/$FILE/serv_spatial_may02.pdf⟩ (Sept. 30, 2005).
Pascal, O., and Revol, D. (1994). “Renovation of water supply systems.” Water Supply Congr., Int. Water Supply Assoc., 12(1–2), 6–7.
Pelletier, G., Mailhot, A., and Villeneuve, J. P. (2003). “Modeling water pipe breaks—Three case studies.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 129(2), 115–123.
Rajani, B., and Zhan, C. (1996). “On the estimation of frost load.” Can. Geotech. J., 33(4), 629–641.
Shamir, U., and Howard, C. D. D. (1979). “An analytic approach to scheduling pipe replacement.” J. Am. Water Works Assoc., 71(5), 248–258.
Shehab Eldeen T. (2001). “An automated system for detection, classification and rehabilitation of defects in sewer pipes.” Ph.D. thesis, Dept. of Building, Civil, and Environmental Engineering, Concordia Univ., Canada.
Skipworth, P., Engelhardt, M., Cashman, A., Savic, D., Saul, A., and Walters, G. (2002). Whole life costing for water distribution network management, Thomas Telford Publishing, London.
Stone, S., Dzuray, E. J., Meisegeier, D., Dahlborg, A., and Erickson, M. (2002). “Decision-support tools for predicting the performance of water distribution and wastewater collection systems.” Project Rep. No. EPA/600/R-02/029, USEPA, ⟨http://www.epa.gov/ORD/NRMRL/pubs/600r02029/600R02029.pdf⟩ (Sept. 30, 2005).
Walski, T. M., and Pelliccia, A. (1982). “Economic analysis of water main breaks.” J. Am. Water Works Assoc., 74(3), 140–147.
Wang, Y. (2006). “Deterioration and condition rating analysis of water mains.” MS thesis, Dept. of Building, Civil, and Environmental Engineering, Concordia Univ., Canada.
Zayed, T., and Halpin, D. (2005). “Pile construction productivity assessment.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 131(6), 705–714.
Zhan, C., and Rajani, B. (1997). “On the estimation of frost load in a trench: Theory and experiment.” Can. Geotech. J., 34(4), 568–579.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 23 • Issue 1 • February 2009
Pages: 47 - 54
Copyright
© 2009 ASCE.
History
Received: Sep 20, 2007
Accepted: Jun 30, 2008
Published online: Feb 1, 2009
Published in print: Feb 2009
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.