Prediction of Tidal Surge in Lower Chesapeake Bay
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 114, Issue 2
Abstract
Tidal surge is the difference between observed water level and predicted astronomical tide. At present, surge predictions for Sewell's Point, Virginia, rely on Pore's hurricane surge model, a linear combination of forecast surface pressures over a large portion of the Atlantic Ocean. We have developed a variation on this method by including previous surge, local wind, and local pressure terms with time lags of up to 18 hr to predict local daily surge. We derived surge prediction equations for three substations 15–120 km (8–65 nautical miles) from Sewell's Point. Surge predictions at all four stations were improved at least 23% by the new regression equations. The ease in using the new equations and their improved accuracy make these new equations preferable to the Pore prediction method. Our procedure is especially useful to shippers, property owners, and others with limited data sources.
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Information
Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 114 • Issue 2 • March 1988
Pages: 248 - 256
Copyright
Copyright © 1988 ASCE.
History
Published online: Mar 1, 1988
Published in print: Mar 1988
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