Decision Rules for Water Resources Management under Uncertainty
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 135, Issue 3
Abstract
Decision making under uncertainty is common in design and planning of water resource projects. The implications and effects of uncertainty on the ranking of design alternatives have been investigated in the literature. However, various decision rules are used to rank candidate alternatives under uncertainty, which creates difficulty in choosing the best rule in practice. This paper starts with a description of uncertainty sources in the decision making process, followed by an overview of various decision rules. A water resources management example is then used to evaluate the utility of different decision rules in terms of the ability of explicit quantification of weight uncertainty, nature of rules, complexity, and computational efficiency. This review provides a comprehensive summary of various decision rules for alternative ranking under uncertainty and guides on how to choose an appropriate decision rule that fits the decision makers’ purpose and use.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Abrishamchi, A., Ebrahimain, A., Tajrishi, M., Mariño, M. A., and Hon, M. (2005). “Case study: Application of multicriteria decision making to urban water supply.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 131(4), 326–335.
Al-Futaisi, A., and Stedinger, J. R. (1999). “Hydrologic and economic uncertainties and flood-risk project design.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 125(6), 314–324.
Ananda, A., and Herath, G. (2005). “Evaluating public risk preferences in forest land-use choices using multi-attribute utility theory.” Ecologic. Econ., 55, 408–419.
Arrow, K. J., and Lind, R. C. (1970). “Uncertainty and the evaluation of public investment decisions.” Am. Econ. Rev., 60(3), 364–378.
Ballestero, E., Alarcó, S., and García-Bernabeu, A. (2002). “Establishing politically feasible water markets: A multi-criteria approach.” J. Environ. Manage., 65, 411–429.
Belton, S., and Stewart, T. S. (2002). Multiple criteria decision analysis. An integrated approach, Kluwer Academic, Boston.
Bogardi, J., and Nachtnebel, H. P. (1994). Multicriteria decision analysis in water resources management, UNESCO, Paris.
Booij, M. J. (2003). “Determination and integration of appropriate spatial scales for river basin modeling.” Hydrolog. Process., 17(13), 2581–2598.
Brasington, J., and Richards, K. (1998). “Interactions between model predictions, parameters and DTM scales for TOPMODEL.” Comput. Geosci., 24(4), 299–314.
Bredehoeft, J. D., and Konikow, L. F. (1993). “Ground-water models: Validate or invalidate.” Ground Water, 31(2), 178–179.
Brill, E. D., Chang, S. Y., and Hopkins, L. D. (1982). “Modeling to generate alternatives: The HSJ approach and an illustration using a problem in land use planning.” Manage. Sci., 25(2), 221–235.
Chang, S. Y., Brill, E. D., and Hopkins, L. D. (1982). “Use of mathematical models to generate alternative solutions to water resources planning problems.” Water Resour. Res., 18(1), 58–64.
Cohon, J. L. (1978). Multiobjective programming and planning, Academic, New York.
Cohon, J. L., and Marks, D. H. (1975). “Review and evaluation of multiobjective programming techniques.” Water Resour. Res., 11(2), 208–220.
Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI). (1996). NAM-MIKE 11, documentation and user’s guide, Hørsholm, Denmark.
De Kok, J. L., and Wind, H. G. (2002). “Rapid assessment of water systems based on internal consistency.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 128(4), 240–247.
De Kok, J. L., and Wind, H. G. (2003). “Design and application of decision-support systems for integrated water management: Lessons to be learnt.” Phys. Chem. Earth, Part A Solid Earth Geod., 28, 571–578.
De Kort, I. A. T., and Booij, M. J. (2007). “Decision making under uncertainty in a decision support system for the Red River.” Environ. Modell. Software, 22(2), 128–136.
Duchnese, S., Beck, M. B., and Reda, A. L. (2001). “Ranking stormwater control strategies under uncertainty: The River Cam case study.” Water Sci. Technol., 43(7), 311–320.
El-Ramly, N. A., Peterson, R. E., and Seo, K. K. (1975). “Economic comparison of projects incorporating decision theory and the expected gain-confidence limit criterion.” Eng. Econ., 20(1), 61–69.
Emond, E. J., and Mason, D. W. (2002). “A new rank correlation coefficient with application to the consensus ranking problem.” J. Multi-Criter. Decis. Anal., 11(1), 17–28.
Eschenbach, E. A., Magee, T., Zagona, E., Goranflo, M., and Shane, R. (2001). “Goal programming decision support system for multiobjective operation of reservoir systems.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 127(2), 108–120.
Figueira, J., Greco, S., and Ehrgott, M. (2005). Multiple criteria decision analysis—State of the art survey, Springer Science+Business Media Inc., New York.
Flug, M. P. E., Seitz, H. L. H., and Scott, J. F. P. E. (2001). “Multicriteria decision analysis applied to Glen Canyon Dam.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 126(5), 270–276.
Guillén, S. T., Trejos, M. S., and Canales, R. (1998). “A robustness index of binary preferences.” Research and Practice in Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Proc., 14th Int. Conf. on Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Y. Haimes and R. Steuer, eds., Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, Va., 105–113.
Hassan, A. E. (2004). “Validation of numerical ground water models used to guide decision making.” Ground Water, 42(2), 277–290.
Henriksen, H. J. (2001). Handbook in ground modelling, GEUS Rep., Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark (in Danish).
Howard, R. A. (1988). “Uncertainty about probability: A decision analysis perspective.” Risk Anal., 8(1), 91–98.
Hyde, K. M., Maier, H. R., and Colby, C. B. (2004). “Reliability-based approach to multicriteria decision analysis for water resources.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 130(6), 429–438.
Hyde, K. M., Maier, H. R., and Colby, C. B. (2005). “A distance-based uncertainty analysis approach to multi-criteria decision analysis for water resources decision making.” J. Environ. Manage., 77(4), 278–290.
Iyer, N. S. (2003). “A family of dominance rules for multiattribute decision making under uncertainty.” IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern., Part A. Syst. Humans, 33(4), 441–450.
Jenkins, M. W., and Lund, J. R. (2000). “Integrating yield and shortage management under multiple uncertainties.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 126(5), 288–297.
Kangas, J., Store, R., Leskinen, P., and Mehtätalo, L. (2000). “Improving the quality of landscape ecological forest planning by utilising advanced decision-support tools.” Forest Ecol. Manage., 132(2), 157–171.
Kendall, M. (1948). Rank correlation methods, Charles Griffin and Company Limited, London.
Khadam, I. M., and Kaluarachchi, J. J. (2003). “Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water.” Environ. Impact. Asses. Rev., 23, 683–721.
King, W. R. (1983). “Integrating strength-weakness analysis into strategic planning.” J. Bus. Res., 11(4), 475–487.
Krause, E. F. (1987). Taxicab geometry: An adventure in non-Euclidean geometry, Dover, New York.
Kullback, S. (1987). “The Kullback-Leibler distance.” Am. Stat., 41, 340–341.
Lee, Y. W., Bogardi, I., and Kim, J. H. (2000). “Decision of water supply line under uncertainty.” Water Res., 34(13), 3371–3379.
Lindblom, C. E. (1959). “The science of ‘muddling through.’” Public Admin. Rev., 19(2), 79–88.
Linkov, I., Satterstrom, F. K., Kiker, G., Batchelor, C., Bridges, T., and Ferguson, E. (2006). “From comparative risk assessment to multi-criteria decision analysis and adaptive management: Recent developments and applications.” Environ. Int., 32, 1072–1093.
Loucks, D. P. (1975). “Conflict and choice: planning for multiple objectives.” Economy wide models and development planning, C. Blitzer, P. Clark, and L. Taylor, eds., Oxford University Press, New York.
Mahmoud, M. R., Fahmy, H., and Labadie, J. W. (2002). “Multicriteria siting and sizing of desalination facilities with geographic information system.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 128(2), 113–120.
Mahmoud, M. R., and Garcia, L. A. (2000). “Comparison of different multicriteria evaluation methods for the Red Bluff diversion dam.” Environ. Modell. Software, 15(5), 471–478.
Malczewski, J. (1999). GIS and multicriteria decision analysis, Wiley, New York.
Markowitz, H. (1959). Porfolio selection, Wiley, New York.
McCarl, B. A. (1990). “Generalized stochastic dominance: An empirical examination.” South. J. Agric. Econ., 22(2), 49–55.
Melching, C. S., and Yoon, C. G. (1996). “Key sources of uncertainty in QUAL2E model of Passaic River.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 122(2), 105–113.
Mendoza, G. A., and Martins, H. (2006). “Multi-criteria decision analysis in natural resource management: A critical review of methods and new modelling paradigms.” Forest Ecol. Manage., 230, 1–22.
Miser, H. J., and Quade, E. S. (1985). Handbook of systems analysis: Overview of uses, procedures, and applications, and practice, Wiley, New York.
Myšiak, J. (2006). “Consistency of the results of different MCA methods: A critical review.” Environ. Plan. B: Plan. Des., 24(2), 257–277.
Neave, H. R., and Worthington, P. L. (1988). Distribution-free tests, UNWIN HYMAN, London.
Oreskes, N., Shrader-Frechetter, K., and Belitz, K. (1994). “Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the earth sciences.” Science, 263(5147), 641–646.
Packman, J. (2002). Quality Assurance in the UK HamoniQuA-State of Art Rep., UK Experiences, 15–18.
Rafter, J. Q., Abell, M. L., and Braselton, J. P. (2002). “Multiple comparisons methods for means.” SIAM Rev., 44(2), 259–278.
Raju, K. S., Duckstein, L., and Arondel, C. (2000). “Multicriterion analysis for sustainable water resources planning: A case study in Spain.” Water Resour. Manage., 14(6), 435–456.
Reckhow, K. H. (2003). “On the need for uncertainty assessment in TMDL modeling and implementation.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 129(4), 245–246.
Rossi, G., Cancelliere, A., and Giuliano, G. (2005). “Case study: Multicriteria assessment of drought mitigation measures.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 131(6), 449–457.
Saltelli, A., Chan, K., and Scott, E. M. (2000). Sensitivity analysis, Wiley, London.
Triantaphyllou, E., and Sanchez, A. (1997). “A sensitivity analysis approach for some deterministic multi-criteria decision making methods.” Decision Sci., 28(1), 151–194.
Tung, Y. K., and Yang, J. C. (1994). “Probabilistic evaluations of economic merit of water resource projects.” Water Resour. Manage., 8(3), 203–223.
Tung, Y. K., Yen, B. C., and Melching, C. S. (2006). Hydrosystems engineering reliability assessment and risk analysis, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Uspensky, J. V. (1948). Theory of equations, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Van Waveren, R. H., et al. (2000). Good Modelling Practice Handbook, STOWA Rep., STOWA, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Vreugdenhil, C. B. (2006). “Appropriate models and uncertainties.” Coastal Eng., 53(2–3), 303–310.
Walker, W. E., et al. (2003). “Defining uncertainty, a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support.” Integr. Assess., 4(1), 5–17.
Wind, H. G., and De Kok, J. L. (2002). “Interdisciplinary modeling: Gaps and bridges.” Mar. Policy., 26(4), 243–251.
Winston, W. L. (2004). Operations research, Brooks/Cole—Thomson Learning, Belmont, Calif.
Xu, Y. (2005). “Appropriate modelling in decision support systems for river basin management.” Ph.D. dissertation, Enschede, The Netherlands.
Xu, Y., and Booij, M. J. (2004). “Appropriate models in decision support system in river basin management.” The Ministry of Education and Science of Republic of Macedonia, Proc., of Conf. on Water Observation and Information System for Decision Support, Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia.
Xu, Y. P., Booij, M. J., and Mynett, A. E. (2007). “An appropriateness framework for the Dutch Meuse decision support system.” Environ. Modell. Software, 22(11), 1667–1678.
Yin, Y. Y., Huang, G. H., and Hipel, K. W. (1999). “Fuzzy relation analysis for multicriteria water resources management.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 125(1), 41–47.
Zechman, E. M., and Ranjithan, R. S. (2007). “Generating alternatives using evolutionary algorithms for water resources, and environmental management problems.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 133(2), 156–165.
Zopounidis, C., and Doumpos, M. (2002). “Multicriteria classification and sorting methods: A literature review.” Eur. J. Oper. Res., 138, 229–246.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 135 • Issue 3 • May 2009
Pages: 149 - 159
Copyright
© 2009 ASCE.
History
Received: Dec 20, 2006
Accepted: Aug 11, 2008
Published online: May 1, 2009
Published in print: May 2009
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.