Design of a Water Transmission Pipeline with an Analytical Probabilistic Model
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 135, Issue 1
Abstract
A challenge that utilities face is to design new water transmission systems with incomplete information concerning future water demand. With an increase in water demand caused by population and economic growth, a design chosen today may deliver inadequate operating pressures to meet higher-than-expected demands in the future. This paper presents an analytical probabilistic model that evaluates the expected level and uncertainty of pressure head at the end of a design period (e.g., ) linked to pipe-diameter decisions in a new water transmission pipeline subject to uncertainty in water demand. The model is developed by deriving a cumulative distribution function (CDF) of pressure head from a probability density function of peak demand. The CDF of pressure head is used to compute measures of central tendency and variability in pressure head and is validated with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The model is applied to the design of a new transmission pipeline with pipe break and pump outage scenarios. The results indicate that increasing pipe diameter increases median pressure head, decreases standard deviation, and lowers uncertainty associated with pressure head predictions. Pressure head percentiles generated with the analytical probabilistic model closely match those generated with MCS.
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References
Elstad, J. C., Byer, P. H., and Adams, B. J. (1987). “Optimal timing of the restoration of watermain carrying capacity.” Proc., CSCE Annual Conf., CSCE, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
Filion, Y. R., Adams, B. J., and Karney, B. W. (2003). “Water distribution system design: Pathology of simplified loading conditions.” Proc., Pumps, Electromechanical Devices and Systems Applied to Urban Water Management, IWA, Valencia, Spain.
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© 2009 ASCE.
History
Received: Apr 18, 2007
Accepted: Jun 4, 2008
Published online: Jan 1, 2009
Published in print: Jan 2009
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