Hydrologic and Economic Implications of Climate Change for Typical River Basins of the Agricultural Midwestern United States
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 134, Issue 3
Abstract
The Midwest is the largest agricultural area of the United States. Historically, the climate there has been suitable for unirrigated farming. However, the specter of climate change has created concerns about the future of Midwestern agriculture, regional fresh water resources and the relationship between the two. Implications of climate change for the agricultural Midwest are revealed in a recent study on two typical agricultural Midwestern watersheds, the Mackinaw River Basin and the upper Sangamon River Basin of central Illinois. Generally in this study a future climate with more frequent droughts is envisioned based on the outcome of one of the major general circulation models, the Canadian Climate Centre model. The climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, low flow frequencies of streams, and the profitability of irrigation, which could be triggered by the climate change, are evaluated. This study shows that the changes in climatic factors of temperature and precipitation tend to reduce crop yields, induce irrigation, and increase low flow frequencies. However, such adverse effects may well be counteracted by the effects of elevated concentration in atmosphere. Thus, the opposing effects of climate change could very well leave agriculture in central Illinois more or less unchanged.
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Acknowledgments
The writers gratefully acknowledge support by the USEPA Star program under Award No. UNSPECIFIEDEPA R827451-01. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the writers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the USEPA Star program. The writers gratefully acknowledge help by Dr. Jeff Arnold, Dr. Susan Neitsch, and Ms. Nancy Sammons.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 134 • Issue 3 • May 2008
Pages: 205 - 213
Copyright
© 2008 ASCE.
History
Received: Nov 12, 2004
Accepted: Jan 16, 2007
Published online: May 1, 2008
Published in print: May 2008
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