Calibrating Holistic Water Resources–Economic Models
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 132, Issue 6
Abstract
This paper presents an approach to calibrating a holistic water resources–economic model, which involves essential water resources and economic components in a consistent model. The model is formulated as an optimization model, with the objective of maximizing economic welfares/profits from water uses. When we apply the model to a baseline scenario against real-world conditions, the economic outputs are often expected to match the observations at the base level, since a wide divergence between model outcomes and actual results is not appropriate for analyzing policy options starting from the baseline. Following the concept of “positive mathematical programming,” the holistic water resources–economic model is calibrated to a baseline level using programming constraints and “positive” inferences from baseline observations. The calibration task is complicated by the fact that a large number of interdependent parameters should be calibrated simultaneously. A numerical approach based on hybrid genetic algorithms is used to implement the calibration procedure.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The first author is indebted to and grateful for Dr. Richard Howitt for his encouragement and advice in calibrating the HWEM and for his very helpful comments and suggestions to this paper. He also thanks Drs. Mark Rosegrant, Claudia Ringler, Daene McKinney, and Andrew Keller for their contributions in the development of the HWEM presented in this paper. The authors are also grateful for the helpful comments from two anonymous reviewers.
References
Beven, K. J. (2001). “Calibration, validation and equifinality in hydrological modeling.” Model validation: Perspectives in hydrological science, M. G. Anderson and P. D. Bates, eds., Wiley, New York, 43–55.
Booker, J. E., and Young, R. A. (1994). “Modeling intrastate and interstate markets for Colorado River water resources.” J. Envir. Econom. Manage., 26(1), 66–87.
Cai, X., and McKinney, D. C. (1997). “A multiobjective analysis model for negotiations in regional water resources allocation.” Proc., Aesthetics in the Construct Environment ASCE, New York.
Cai, X., McKinney, D. C., and Lasdon, L. (2001a). “Solving nonlinear water management models using a combined genetic algorithm and linear programming approach.” Adv. Water Resour., 24(6), 667–676.
Cai, X., McKinney, D. C., Lasdon, L. S., and Watkins, D. (2001b). “Solving large nonconvex water resources management models using generalized benders decomposition.” Oper. Res., 49(2), 235–245.
Cai, X., Rosegrant, M. W., McKinney, D. C., and Ringler, C. (2001c). “Holistic water resources-economic modeling.” Proc., Bridging the Gap: Meeting the World’s Water and Environmental Resources Challenges, ASCE, Reston, Va.
Cai, X., McKinney, D. C., and Lasdon, L. S. (2003). “Integrated hydrologic-agronomic-economic model for river basin management.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 129(1), 4–17.
Cai, X., Ringler, C., and Rosegrant, M. W. (2006). “Modeling water resources management at the basin level: Methodology and application to the Maipo River basin.” Rep., The International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C.
Cheng, C. T., Ou, C. P., and Chau, K. W. (2002). “Combining a fuzzy optimal model with a genetic algorithm to solve multi-objective rainfall-runoff model calibration.” J. Hydrol., 268(5), 202–211.
Draper, A. J., Jenkins, M. W., Kirby, K. W., Lund, J. R., and Howitt, R. E. (2003). “Economic-engineering optimization for California water management.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 129(3), 155–164.
Duan, Q., Gupta, H., Sorooshian, S., Rousseau, A., and Turcotte, R. (2003). “Calibration of watershed models.” Proc., Water Science and Application 6, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.
Goldberg, D. E. (1989). Genetic algorithms, Addison-Wesley, Reading, Mass.
Howitt, R. E. (1995). “Positive mathematical programming.” Am. J. Agric. Econom., 77(5), 329–342.
Howitt, R. E., and Msangi, S. (2002). “Reconstruction disaggregate production functions.” Selected paper presented at the 2002 Am. Ag. Econ Asso., (AAEA) annual meeting, Long Beach, CA.
Jenkins, M. W. et al. (2004). “Optimization of California’s water supply system: Results and insights.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 130(4), 271–280.
Kapelan, Z. S., Savic, D. A., and Walters, G. A. (2003). “Multiobjective sampling design for water distribution model calibration.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 129(6), 466–479.
Labadie J. (2004). “Optimal operation of multireservoir systems: State-of-the-art review.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 130(2), 93–113.
Meier, R. W., and Barkdoll, B. D. (2000). “Sampling design for network model calibration using genetic algorithms.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 126(4), 245–250.
Mulligan, A. E., and Brown, L. C. (1998). “Genetic algorithms for calibrating water quality models.” J. Environ. Eng., 124(3), 202–211.
Noel, J. E., and Howitt, R. E. (1982). “Conjunctive multibasin management: An optimal control approach.” Water Resour. Res., 18(4), 753–763.
ReVelle C. (1999). Optimizing reservoir resources—Including a new model for reservoir reliability, Wiley, New York.
Rohm, O., and Dabbert, S. (2003). “Integrating agri-environmental programs into regional production models: An extension of positive mathematical programming.” Am. J. Agric. Econom., 85, 254–265.
Rosegrant, M., Ringler, C., McKinney, D. C., Cai, X., Keller, A., and Donoso, G. (2000). “Integrated economic-hydrologic water modeling at the basin scale: The Maipo River basin.” J. Agricultural Economics, 24(1), 33–46.
Smedema, L. K., and Rycroft, O. W. (1990). Land drainage, Batsford, London, U.K.
Wagner, B. J. (1995). “Recent advances in simulation-optimization groundwater management modeling.” Rev. Geophys., 33, 1021–1028.
Wang, Q. J. (1991). “The genetic algorithm and its application to calibrating conceptual rainfall-runoff models.” Water Resour. Res., 27(9), 2467–2471.
Wurbs R. (1993). “Reservoir-system simulation and optimization models.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 119(4), 455–472.
Yeh W. (1985). “Reservoir management and operations models: A state-of-the-art review.” Water Resour. Res., 21(12), 1797–1818.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 132 • Issue 6 • November 2006
Pages: 414 - 423
Copyright
© 2006 ASCE.
History
Received: Nov 5, 2004
Accepted: Sep 7, 2005
Published online: Nov 1, 2006
Published in print: Nov 2006
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.