Use of Satellite Data for Streamflow and Reservoir Storage Forecasts in the Snake River Basin
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 132, Issue 2
Abstract
We describe an approach to seasonal streamflow forecasting for the Snake River Basin in the Pacific Northwest that uses the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model in conjunction with adjustments of the model’s initial snow state using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery for Winters 2000–2004. We evaluated seasonal streamflow forecasts made on March 1, April 1, and May 1 through the end of July, as well as short lead forecasts for two-week durations beginning on April 15 and May 15 retrospectively for 2000–2004 (2004 forecasts are archived forecasts made in real time). In general, reductions in mean absolute error were more prevalent and larger for the two-week forecasts than for the longer seasonal forecasts, and the forecast skill improvements resulting from updating were greatest for forecasts made earliest in the season. Inclusion of MODIS data resulted in forecast error reduction (or no change in forecasts) in 59% of the seasonal forecasts (54% of the two-week forecasts), however when only the largest adjustments were considered, the fraction of improvement was much higher. We also evaluated the effect of MODIS adjustment on reservoir storage volume forecasts using a monthly time step reservoir simulation model. For two reservoirs (Dworshak and American Falls) where the reservoir model performed well in retrospective simulations, storage forecast errors were reduced for most forecasts at Dworshak, but were mostly unchanged or degraded at American Falls. The differences are attributed to reservoir operating characteristics, which are more constrained at American Falls than at Dworshak.
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Acknowledgments
This publication was supported by the Applications Division of the NASA Earth Sun System Division through funding to the Pacific Northwest Regional Collaboratory. The writers thank Pamela Pace of the Idaho Department of Water Resources for providing the retrospective and near real-time streamflow and reservoir storage data. Ryan Hruska of the Idaho National Environmental and Engineering Laboratory provided preprocessed MODIS images and fractional SCA data extracted from archives of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The authors are also grateful to Niklas Christensen of the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington for his assistance in analysis of forecast model performance, and preparation of some of the tables and figures.NASA
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 132 • Issue 2 • March 2006
Pages: 97 - 110
Copyright
© 2006 ASCE.
History
Received: Jun 2, 2004
Accepted: Jul 29, 2004
Published online: Mar 1, 2006
Published in print: Mar 2006
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