TECHNICAL PAPERS
Apr 15, 2002

Potential Impacts of Global Warming on Groundwater in Eastern Massachusetts

Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 128, Issue 3

Abstract

The possible impacts of climate change induced by global warming on a highly permeable, unconfined aquifer located in the humid northeastern U.S. is analyzed for the years 2030 and 2100. The groundwater model MODFLOW is calibrated and verified for the area and used to analyze the impacts of several mean and drought climate change scenarios. Pumping conditions and land use are assumed to remain the same as at present. The climate change scenarios result in either slightly higher, no different, or significantly less annual recharge and groundwater elevations, producing a variety of impacts on wetlands, water supply potential, and low flows. Impacts are most severe under some drought scenarios. The policy response to the possible impacts as recommended by the leader of a watershed advocacy group is that wise management of the aquifer should be advocated with a particular focus on limiting the expansion of water supply from the aquifer and increasing the present amount of groundwater recharge.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

References

Arnell, N., Jenkins, A., and George, D. G. (1994). The implications of climate change for the National River Authority, National Rivers Authority, Bristol, U.K.
Arnell, N., Bates, B., Lang, H., Magnuson, J., and Mulkolland, P. (1996). “Chapter 10: Hydrology and freshwater ecology.” Climate change 1995, impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: scientific-technical analyses, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
Bicknell, B. R., Imhoff, J. C., Kittle, J. L., Donigan, A. S., and Johanson, R. C. (1996). HSPF—user’s Manual for Release 11, Environmental Research Laboratory, U.S. EPA, Athens, Ga.
Bouck, B. R. (1996). Upper Charles River study—growth vs. water supply, Massachusetts Dept. of Environmental Protection, Boston.
BSC Group. (1988). “Populatic Pond diagnostic feasibility.” Final Rep. Prepared for Town of Franklin, Franklin, Mass.
Burkett, V., and Kusler, J.(2000). “Climate change: potential impacts and interactions in wetlands of the United States.” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 36(2), 313–320.
D. L. Maher Co. (1996). “The results of a prolonged pumping test at Site T.W. #1-86 Populatic St., Franklin, MA, during October 1994.” Rep. to the Town of Franklin, Franklin, Mass.
Dufresne-Henry, Inc. (1996). “Report on Mill River Site Pump Test.” Rep. to the Town of Norfolk, Norfolk, Mass.
Eltahir, E. A. B., and Yeh, P. J. F.(1999). “On the asymmetric response of aquifer water level to floods and droughts in Illinois.” Water Resour. Res., 35(4), 1199–1217.
Gleick, P. (1993). Water in crisis, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security, and Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.K.
Guiger, N., and Franz, T. (1996). Visual MODFLOW, Version 2.0, Waterloo Hydrologic Software, Ottawa.
Haley and Ward, Inc. (1985). “Report on second phase of water quality investigation at the Populatic Street Water Supply Well Number 1.” Rep. to the Board of Water and Sewer Commissioners, Medway, Mass.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (1996). Climate change 1995, the science of climate change, summary for policymakers, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
Karl, T. R., and Easterling, D. R.(1999). “Climate extremes: selected review and future research directions.” Climatic Change,42, 309–325.
Karl, T. R., Nicholls, N., and Gregory, J. (1997). “The coming climate.” Sci. Am., May, 78–83.
Kirshen, P. H. (2000). “Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater supply and services in Eastern Massachusetts: a case study of the Upper Charles River Basin.” Rep. to the U.S. EPA, Office of Policy Planning and Evaluation and the Charles River Watershed Association, Washington, D.C.
Kirshen, P. H., and Fennessey, N. M. (1995). “Climate change and Boston Area water supply.” Rep. EPA 230-R-95-003, Office of Policy Planning and Evaluation, U.S. EPA, Washington, D.C.
Ku, H. F. H., Hagelin, N. W., and Buxton, H. T. (1992). “Effects of urban storm-runoff control on ground-water recharge in Nassau County, New York.” Groundwater, July-August.
Kuhnel, V., Dooge, J. C. I., O’Kane, J. P. J., and Romanowicz, R. J. (1991). “Partial analysis applied to scale problems in surface moisture fluxes.” Land surface–atmospheric interactions for climate modeling, E. Wood, ed., Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Leonard, R., Kuzelka, B., and Seacrest, S. (1999). “Groundwater–climate change interactions.” Proc., Specialty Conf. on Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change to Water Resources of the United States, American Water Resources Association, Bethesda, Md.
Linsley, R. K., Kohler, M. A., and Paulhus, J. L. H. (1982). Hydrology for engineers, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Lyford, F. P., and Cohen, A. J. (1987). “Estimation of water available for recharge to sand and gravel aquifers in the glaciated northeastern United States.” Regional aquifer systems of the United States, American Water Resources Association, Bethesda, Md.
Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MA DEP). (1994). Annual community public water supply statistical report and identification survey, form (B), Division of Water Supply, Boston.
Massachusetts Dept. of Environmental Protection (MA DEP). (2000). Wetlands Protection Act Regulations: 310CMR10.00, Boston.
MassGISS datalayer descriptions and guide to user services. (1996). Executive Office of Environmental Affairs, Boston.
McDonald, M. G., and Harbaugh, A. W. (1988). A modular three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
Myette, C. F., and Simcox, A. C. (1992). “Water resources and aquifer yields in the Charles River Basin, Massachusetts.” Water-Resources Investigations Rep. 88-4173, U.S. Geological Survey, Marlborough, Mass.
Oquist, M. G., and Svensson, B. H. (1996). “Chapter 6: Non-tidal wetlands.” Climate change 1995, impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: scientific-technical analyses, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
Prudic, D. E. (1989). “Documentation of a computer program to simulate stream-aquifer relations using a modular, finite-difference, groundwater model.” USGS Open File Rep. 88-729, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
Rawls, W. J., Ahuja, L. R., Brakensiek, D. L., and Shirmohammadi, A. (1993). “Chapter 5: Infiltration and soil water movement.” Handbook of hydrology, D. R. Maidment, ed., McGraw-Hill, New York.
Rosenberg, N. J., Epstein, D. J., Wang, D., Vail, L., Srinivasan, R., and Arnold, J. G.(1999). “Possible impacts of global warming on the hydrology of the Ogallala Aquifer Region.” Climatic Change ,42, 677–692.
Shuttleworth, W. J. (1993). “Chapter 4: Evaporation.” Handbook of hydrology, D. R. Maidment, ed., McGraw-Hill, New York.
Solley, W. B., Pierce, R. R., and Perlman, H. A. (1998). “Estimated use of water in the United States in 1995.” U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1200, U.S. Geological Survey, Washington D.C.
Stedinger, J. R., Vogel, R. M., and Foufoula-Georgiou, E. (1993). “Chapter 18: Frequency analysis of extreme events.” Handbook of hydrology, D. R. Maidment, ed., McGraw-Hill, New York.
Thomsen, R. (1990). “Effect of climate variability and change in groundwater in Europe.” Nordic Hydrology, 21.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). (1997). “Climate change and Massachusetts, fact sheet from the Office of Policy Planning and Evaluation.” EPA 230-F-97-008u, Washington, D.C.
Vaccaro, J. J.(1992). “Sensitivity of groundwater recharge estimates to climate variability and change, Columbia Plateau, Washington.” J. Geophys. Res., 97(D3), 2827–2833.
Walker, E. H., Caswell, W. W., and Wandle, S. W. (1977). “Hydrologic data of the Charles River Basin, MA.” MA Hydrologic-Data Rep. No. 19, U.S. Geological Survey and Massachusetts Water Resources Commission, Boston.
Williams, J. R. (1967). “Drastic lowering of Kingsbury Pond, Norfolk, MA.” Open File Rep., U.S. Geological Survey, Boston.
Zekster, I. S., and Loaiciga, H.(1993). “Groundwater fluxes in the global hydrologic cycle: past, present, and future.” J. Hydrol., 144, 405–427.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 128Issue 3May 2002
Pages: 216 - 226

History

Received: Apr 14, 2000
Accepted: Jun 11, 2001
Published online: Apr 15, 2002
Published in print: May 2002

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Authors

Affiliations

Paul H. Kirshen, M.ASCE
Civil and Environmental Engineering Dept., Anderson Hall, Tufts Univ., Medford, MA 02155.

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

Cited by

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share