Planning Reservoir Operations with Imprecise Objectives
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 123, Issue 3
Abstract
Imprecise and noncommensurable objectives for reservoir operation are addressed through fuzzy dynamic programming using an implicit stochastic approach. Fuzzy membership functions for evaluating the achievement of a linguistically described operational goal and linguistically described constraints are estimated from surveys of decision makers. Summary statistics of the membership function values for optimal operation provide easily interpreted measures of degree of satisfaction among diverse objectives. An example application to the proposed Grey Mountain Reservoir on the Cache la Poudre River in northern Colorado showed that the expected degree of satisfaction for water supply objectives (constraints) would exceed 70% in six of 12 months, while 90% satisfaction of the flood control objective could be expected throughout the year. Expected degrees of satisfaction for storage, recreational, fish habitat, and hydropower objectives are substantially lower. Relative variability in predicted degrees of satisfaction is high. The average composite degree of satisfaction for the project is moderate, has a general seasonal trend, and is substantially variable in late summer and early fall.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Ayyub, B. M., and McCuen, R. H.(1987). “Quality and uncertainty assessment of wildlife habitat with fuzzy sets.”J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt., ASCE, 113(1), 95–109.
2.
Bardossy, A., and Duckstein, L. (1992). “Analysis of a karstic aquifer management problem by fuzzy compromise programming.”Multiple objective decision making in water resources, Monograph Ser. No. 18, K. Hipel, ed., Am. Water Res. Assn., Bethesda, Md., 63–74.
3.
Bardossy, A., and Duckstein, L. (1995). Fuzzy rule-based modeling with applications to geophysical, biological and engineering systems. CRC Press, Inc., Boca Raton, Fla.
4.
Bertsekas, D. P. (1995). Dynamic programming and optimal control, vol. I. Athena Scientific, Belmont, Mass.
5.
Bogardi, I., Duckstein, L., and Bardossy, A.(1983). “Regional management of an aquifer under fuzzy environmental objectives.”Water Resour. Res., 19(6), 1394–1403.
6.
Changchit, C., and Terrell, M. P.(1989). “CCGP model for multiobjective reservoir systems.”J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt., ASCE, 115(5), 658–670.
7.
Dombi, J.(1990). “Membership function as an evaluation.”Fuzzy Sets and Sys., 35, 1–21.
8.
Gates, T. K., Heyder, W. E., Fontane, D. G., and Salas, J. D.(1991). “Multicriterion strategic planning for improved irrigation delivery I: approach.”J. Irrig. and Drain. Engrg., ASCE, 117(6), 897–913.
9.
Goicoechea, A., Hansen, D. R., and Duckstein, L. (1982). Multiobjective decision analysis with engineering and business applications. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, N.Y.
10.
Grigg, N. S. (1985). Water resources planning. McGraw-Hill Book Co., Inc., New York, N.Y.
11.
Harboe, R. (1992). “Multiobjective decision making techniques for reservoir operation.”Multiple objective decision making in water resources, Monograph Ser. No. 18, K. Hipel, ed., Am. Water Res. Assn., Bethesda, Md., 103–110.
12.
Harza Engineering Co. (1990). “Cache La Poudre River Basin, study extension.” Final Rep.
13.
Hipel, K. W. (1982). “Fuzzy sets methodologies in multicriteria modeling.”Fuzzy information and decision processes, M. Gupta and E. Sanchez, eds., North-Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
14.
Hipel, K. W. (ed.) (1992). Multiple objective decision making in water resources. Monograph Ser. No. 18, Am. Water Res. Assn., Bethesda, Md., 63–74.
15.
Karamouz, M., and Houck, M. H.(1987). “Comparison of stochastic and deterministic dynamic programming for reservoir operating rule generation.”Water Resour. Bull., 23(1), 1–9.
16.
Klir, G. J., and Folger, T. A. (1988). Fuzzy sets, uncertainty, and information. Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J.
17.
Klir, G. J., and Yuan, B. (1995). Fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic: theory and applications. Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J.
18.
Ko, S., Fontane, D. G., and Labadie, J. W. (1992). “Multiobjective optimization of reservoir systems operation.”Multiple objective decision making in water resources, Monograph Ser. No. 18, K. Hipel, ed., Am. Water Res. Assn., 111–128.
19.
Kosko, B. (1992). Neural networks and fuzzy systems: a dynamical systems approach to machine intelligence. Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J.
20.
Labadie, J. W. (1987). “Dynamic programming with the microcomputer.”Encyclopedia of microcomputers, I. A. Kent and J. Williams, eds., Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, N.Y.
21.
Margeta, J. Fontane, and D. G., and Ko(1990). “Multicriteria ranking wastewater disposal alternatives for coastal towns.”Water Int., IWRA, 15(2), 80–89.
22.
NeuroShell-2. (1993). Ward Systems Group, Frederick, Md.
23.
Norwich, A. M., and Turksen, I. B.(1984). “A model for the measurement of membership and the consequences of its empirical implementation.”Fuzzy Sets and Sys., 12(1), 1–25.
24.
Ouarda, T. (1991). “Stochastic optimal operation of large-scale hydropower systems,” PhD thesis, Civ. Engrg. Dept., Colorado State Univ. at Fort Collins, Colo.
25.
Owen, W. J., Gates, T. K., and Flug, M.(1997). “Variability in perceived satisfaction of reservoir management objectives.”J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt., 123(3), 147–153.
26.
Pedrycz, W. (1993). Fuzzy control and fuzzy systems, 2nd Ed., John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, N.Y.
27.
Rea, L. M., and Parker, R. A. (1992). Designing and conducting survey research: a comprehensive guide. Jossey-Bass Pub., San Francisco, Calif.
28.
Revelle, C. E., Joeres, E., and Kirby, W.(1969). “The linear decision rule in reservoir management and design 1: development of the stochastic model.”Water Resour. Res., 5(4), 767–777.
29.
Russell, S. O., and Campbell, P. F.(1996). “Reservoir operating rules with fuzzy programming.”J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt., ASCE, 122(3), 165–170.
30.
Simonovic, S. P. (1991). “Coping with changing objectives in managing an existing multipurpose reservoir.”Hydro. of Nat. and Manmade Lakes, Publ. No. 206, G. Schiller et al., eds., Int. Assn. of Hydro. Sci., Wallingford, U.K., 181–189.
31.
Slowinsky, R. (1986). “A multicriteria fuzzy linear programming method for water supply system development.”Fuzzy sets and systems J.
32.
Tecle, A., Fogel, M., and Duckstein, L.(1988). “Multicriterion selection of wastewater management alternatives.”J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt., ASCE, 114(4), 383–398.
33.
Young, G. K.(1967). “Finding reservoir operating rules.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 93(6), 297–321.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
Copyright © 1997 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: May 1, 1997
Published in print: May 1997
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.