Estimating Rear-End Accident Probabilities at Signalized Intersections: Occurrence-Mechanism Approach
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 129, Issue 4
Abstract
At signalized intersections, rear-end accidents are frequently the predominant accident type. These accidents result from the combination lead-vehicle deceleration and the ineffective response of the following vehicle’s driver to this deceleration. This paper mathematically represents this process, by expressing accident probability as the product of the probability of the lead vehicle decelerating and the probability of the driver in the following failing to respond in time to avoid a collision. Using this premise, a model of rear-end accident probabilities is estimated using information on traffic flow, traffic regulations, roadway geometrics, and human factors from four-legged signalized intersections in Tokyo, Japan. Estimation findings provide some important preliminary evidence for the development of countermeasures to reduce the frequency of rear-end accidents at signalized intersections.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 129 • Issue 4 • July 2003
Pages: 377 - 384
Copyright
Copyright © 2003 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 17, 2002
Accepted: Aug 26, 2002
Published online: Jun 13, 2003
Published in print: Jul 2003
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