Traffic Prediction Using Multivariate Nonparametric Regression
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 129, Issue 2
Abstract
The efficient control of traffic on motorways or freeways can produce many benefits, including quicker journey times, fewer pollutant emissions, and reduced driver stress. If it were possible to accurately predict the future state of traffic on a motorway, active measures could be taken to forestall congestion and its attendant negative impacts. This paper presents an intuitive method of producing these forecasts using a pattern matching technique. The technique adopted is novel in that it is a multivariate extension of nonparametric regression that exploits the three-dimensional nature of the traffic state. The application and other facets of the technique are illustrated with actual data from the London orbital motorway. The technique is able to produce forecasts for two of the three traffic state variables with reasonable accuracy and is capable of application on site.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 129 • Issue 2 • March 2003
Pages: 161 - 168
Copyright
Copyright © 2003 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 27, 2001
Accepted: Mar 20, 2002
Published online: Feb 14, 2003
Published in print: Mar 2003
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