Probabilistic Approach to Implementing Traffic Signal Warrants
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 126, Issue 4
Abstract
Traffic signal warrants documented in the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices neglects the effect of daily and hourly volume variations in traffic. Furthermore, current practice cannot be used to prioritize signal installations among multiple intersections that meet the warrants. Finally, there is no guidance in the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices on how the warrants can be applied to projected traffic conditions when hourly counts are not available. This paper describes a probabilistic approach to implementing traffic signal warrants. The proposed approach used Monte Carlo simulation to generate, on the basis of variable hourly traffic counts, the probability that any particular signal warrant will be met at an intersection. The simulation approach was extended to develop planning level guidelines for signal installation using predefined synthetic traffic flow profiles and the average daily traffic estimates for the intersecting streets. The proposed guidelines were compared with current planning guidelines used in Texas and California. The comparison results indicate that the Texas guidelines tend to underestimate the need for traffic signal installation, whereas the California guidelines tend to overestimate the need.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 126 • Issue 4 • July 2000
Pages: 332 - 342
History
Received: Jul 29, 1999
Published online: Jul 1, 2000
Published in print: Jul 2000
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