Modeling Demand for Public Transit Services in Rural Areas
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 123, Issue 3
Abstract
Accurate estimates of demand are critical for planning, designing, and operating public transit systems. Previous research has demonstrated that the expected demand in rural areas is a function of both demographic and transit system variables. Numerous models have been proposed to describe the relationship between the aforementioned variables. However, most of them are site specific and their validity over time and space is not reported or perhaps has not been tested. Moreover, input variables in some cases are extremely difficult to quantify. In this article, the estimation of demand using the generalized linear modeling technique is discussed. Two separate models, one for fixed-route and another for demand-responsive services, are presented. These models, calibrated with data from systems in nine different states, are used to demonstrate the appropriateness and validity of generalized linear models compared to the regression models. They explain over 70% of the variation in expected demand for fixed-route services and 60% of the variation in expected demand for demand-responsive services. It was found that the models are spatially transferable and that data for calibration are easily obtainable.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 123 • Issue 3 • May 1997
Pages: 216 - 222
Copyright
Copyright © 1997 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: May 1, 1997
Published in print: May 1997
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