Reliability Model for Pavement Performance
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 114, Issue 3
Abstract
A simulation model to calculate the reliability/performance of pavements is developed. The computer program, Reliability Analysis and Performance of Pavements (RAPP‐I), employs Monte Carlo simulation techniques to solve the design equations (e.g., AASHTO, Premium) in which all of the design variables are assumed to be probabilistic and normally distributed. RAPP‐I, in conjunction with the respective design model, calculates the present serviceability index (PSI) of pavements in one‐year increments. In addition to uncertainties attributable to the design factors, errors due to idealization of the model are included in the PSI calculation. By comparing the computed PSI with the terminal PSI, assuming that both are normally distributed, standard probabilistic techniques are employed for calculating pavement reliability. An expression for calculating the “expected” life of pavements, employing the reliabilities at various ages, is proposed. The expected life is found to be a convenient measure for comparing the performance of various pavement design features.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
AASHTO guide for design of pavement structures. (1985). American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, D.C.
2.
AASHTO interim guide for design of pavement structure. (1972). American Association for State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, D.C.
3.
Benjamin, J. R., and Cornell, C. A. (1970). Probability statistics and decision for civil engineers. McGraw‐Hill, New York, N.Y.
4.
Darter, M. I., and Hudson, W. R. (1973). “Probabilistic design concepts applied to flexible pavement system design.” Report No. 123‐18, Center for Highway Research, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Tex.
5.
Design of continuously reinforced concrete highways. (1981). CRC Manual, Associated Reinforcing Bar Producers—CRSI, Chicago, Ill.
6.
George, K. P., Alsherri, A., and Shah, N. S. (1988). “Reliability analysis of premium pavement design features.” J. Transp. Engrg., ASCE, 114(5).
7.
George, K. P., et al. (1982). “Iterim guide for design of premium pavements.” Final Report to FHWA, Washington, D.C.
8.
Hudson, W. R. (1975). “State‐of‐the‐art in predicting pavement reliability from input variability.” Report No. FAA‐RD‐75‐207, U.S. Army Waterways Experiment Station, Vicksburg, Miss.
9.
Kenis, W. J. (1977). “Predicted design procedure for flexible pavement using the VESYS structural subsystem.” Proc. Fourth Int. Conf. on Struct. Design of Asphalt Pavements, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich., 101–130.
10.
Kher, K. K., Hudson, W. R., and McCullough, B. F. (1970). “A System Analysis of Rigid Pavement Design.” Report No. 123‐5, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Tex.
11.
Lemer, A. C., and Moavenzaydeh, F. (1971). “Reliability of highway pavements.” Highway Research Board, Record No. 362, Washington, D.C.
12.
Shah, N. S., et al. (1985). “Evaluation of alternatives to improve pavement design.” Report FHWA‐TS‐85‐230, FHWA, Washington, D.C.
13.
“The AASHO Road Test, Pavement Research.” (1962). Highway Research Board Special Report 61E, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
Copyright © 1988 ASCE.
History
Published online: May 1, 1988
Published in print: May 1988
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.