TECHNICAL PAPERS
Nov 1, 1984

Delphi Forecasts of Land Use: Transportation Interactions

Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 110, Issue 3

Abstract

The Delphi method is used to predict the impacts of three alternative transportation programs in San Jose, California. Variables projected concern both land use (e.g., number of single‐family housing units) and choice of transit mode. Forecasts are made for 1990 and 2000 for four spatial zones within San Jose. Delphi panelists are individuals familiar with land use and transportation issues in the San Jose area. A preliminary questionnaire survey is used to set general economic conditions and land use policies that serve as a context for specific forecasts of land use‐transportation interactions. Strengths and weaknesses of the Delphi method in forecasting land use are assessed.

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References

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Amara, R. C., and Lipinski, A. J., “Some Views on the Use of Expert Judgment,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 3, 1972, pp. 279–289.
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Cavalli‐Sforza, V., et al., “Transit Facilities and Land Use: An Application of the Delphi Method,” Report No. 1PM‐15, Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Stanford Univ., Stanford, Calif., Jan., 1982.
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Dajani, J. S., and Ortolano, L., eds., “Methods of Forecasting the Reciprocal Impacts of Infrastructure Development and Land‐Use,” Report No. JPM‐11, Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Stanford Univ., Stanford, Calif., June, 1979.
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Go to Journal of Transportation Engineering
Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 110Issue 3November 1984
Pages: 324 - 339

History

Published online: Nov 1, 1984
Published in print: Nov 1984

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Authors

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Violetta Cavalli‐Sforza
Vice‐Pres., Graphicon Software, Inc., Palo Alto, Calif.; formerly Research Asst., Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Stanford Univ., Stanford, Calif. 94305
Leonard Ortolano, M. ASCE
Prof. of Civ. Engrg., Program in Infrastructure Planning and Management, Stanford Univ., Stanford, Calif. 94305

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