Transferabilities of Urban Travel Demand Models
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 109, Issue 4
Abstract
This paper presents an analysis of recent investigations on the transferability of passenger travel demand models under different empirical and policy conditions. The results of this study generally indicate that with proper selection of urban areas the transferability of demand models is possible under similar empirical and policy conditions. Specific findings of this study include: (1) “Universal” models accounted only for partial urban character and thus met only partial success; (2) the change of transportation policy variable at a small scale has no significant impact on the model transferability; (3) the change in base conditions of socio‐economic variables has profound influence on model transferability; (4) demand models are temporally stable over a period equal to or less than 12 years; and (5) the model transferability can be ranked in order of household models, zonal average models and zonal models. It is hoped that these study findings would make a significant contribution to travel demand estimation, especially when a quick‐response technique is required for transportation policy‐oriented decision‐making.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Algers, S., Hansen, S., and Tegner, C., “On the Evaluation of Comfort and Convenience in Urban Transportation—A Choice Analytic Approach,” Transportation Research Forum Proceedings, 1974, pp. 470–481.
2.
Ashford, N., and Holloway, F., “Time Stability of Zonal Trip Production Models,” Transportation Engineering Journal of ASCE, Vol. 98, No. TE4, Nov., 1972, pp. 799–806.
3.
Atherton, T. J., and Ben‐Akiva, M. E., “Transferability and Updating of Disaggregate Travel Demand Models,” Transportation Research Record 610, 1976, pp. 12–18.
4.
Ben‐Akiva, M. E., Lerman, S. R., and Manheim, M. C., Disaggregate Models: An Overview of Some Recent Research Results and Practical Applications, MIT, 1978.
5.
Caldwell, L. C., III, and Demetsky, M. J., “Transferability of Trip Generation Models,” Transportation Research Record 751, 1980, pp. 56–62.
6.
Chan, Y., Ou, F.‐L., Perl, J., and Regan, E., “Review and Compilation of Demand Forecasting Experiences: An Aggregation of Estimation Procedure,” final report prepared for the Office of University Research, Office of the Secretary of Transportation, Washington, D.C., June, 1977.
7.
Daly, A. J., “Research on Transport Demand Models,” Transportation Research Forum, Proceedings of the Fifteenth Annual Meeting, 1974, pp. 354–362.
8.
Dehghani, Y., Kousheshi, B., Sievert, R., and McKearney, T., “Transferability and An Analysis of Prediction Errors in Mode Choice Models for Work Trips,” presented at the 60th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 1981.
9.
Development and Calibration of Mode Choice Models for the Twin Cities Area, Pratt, R. H. and Assoc., Inc. and DTM, Inc., Twin Cities, Minn., 1976.
10.
Domencich, T., Kraft, G., and Valette, J. P., “Estimation of Urban Passenger Travel Behavior: An Economic Demand Model,” Highway Research Record 238, 1968, pp. 64–78.
11.
Downes, J. D., and Gyenes, L., “Temporal Stability and Forecasting Ability of Trip Generation Models in Reading,” TRRL Laboratory Report 726, 1976.
12.
Fogarty, W. J., “Trip Production Forecasting Models for Urban Areas,” Transportation Engineering Journal of ASCE, Vol. 102, No. TE4, Nov., 1976, pp. 831–845.
13.
Goode, L. R., and Heimbach, C. L., “An Evaluation of the Transferability of Trip Generation Models from One Urban Area to Another,” presented at the 61st Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., Jan., 1982.
14.
Guidelines for Trip Generation Analysis, Federal Highway Administration, 1967.
15.
Hensher, D. A., and Johnson, L. W., “A Two‐Period Analysis of Commuter Mode Choice: The Predictive Capability of Individual Choice Models,” The Logistics and Transportation Review, Vol. 13, No. 4, 1977, pp. 361–375.
16.
Hill, D. M., and Dodd, N., “Studies of Trends of Travel Between 1954 and 1964 in A Large Metropolitan Area,” Highway Research Record 141, 1964, pp. 1–23.
17.
Hill, D. M., and von Cube, H. G., “Development of A Model for Forecasting Travel Mode Choice in Urban Areas,” Highway Research Record 38, 1963, pp. 78–96.
18.
“Implementation of the N‐Dimensional Logit Model,” Final Report, Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co., Comprehensive Planning Organization, San Diego County, San Diego, Calif., 1972.
19.
Kannel, E. J., and Heathington, K. W., “Temporal Stability of Trip Generation Relations,” Highway Research Record, 1973, pp. 17–27.
20.
Kassoff, H., and Deutschman, H. O., “Trip Generation: A Critical Appraisal,” Highway Research Record 297, 1969, pp. 15–30.
21.
Koppelman, F. S., “Preliminary Study for Development of A Macro Urban Travel Demand Model,” final report prepared for U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C., 1972.
22.
Mahmassani, H. S., Bevilacqua, O. M., and Sinha, K. C., “A Framework for Transferring Travel Characteristics of Small Urban Areas,” presented at the 58th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., Jan., 1979.
23.
Mass Transportation in Massachusetts, Mass Transportation Commission of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, McKinsey & Co., Systems Analysis & Research Corp., and Joseph Napolitan S. Assoc., Sponsored by U.S. Housing and Home Finance Agency, project No. MASS‐MTD‐1, July, 1964.
24.
McFadden, D., “The Measurement of Urban Travel Demand,” Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 3, 1974, pp. 303–328.
25.
McFadden, D., “Theory and Practice of Disaggregate Demand Forecasting for Various Modes of Urban Transportation,” presented at a Seminar on Emerging Transportation Planning Methods, Daytona Beach, Fla., 1976.
26.
Multiple Regression Analysis, Base Year 1963, Staff Bulletin 2, Provo Area Transportation Study, Oct., 1965.
27.
Ou, F. L., and Yu, J. C., “Effect of Urban Character on the Transferability of Travel Demand Models,” Transportation Research Record 874, 1982, pp. 5–12.
28.
“Quick‐Response Urban Travel Estimation Techniques and Transferable Parameters—User's Guide,” Cosmis Corp., NCHRP Report 187, 1978.
29.
Redevelopment of the Ogden Area Transportation Trip Generation Equations, Base Year 1962, Staff Bulletin B, Ogden's Area Transportation Study, Sept., 1970.
30.
Redevelopment of Auto Driver Trip Generation Equations for the Salt Lake Area Transportation Study, Staff‐Bulletin C, Utah State Department of Highways, 1970.
31.
Smith, R. L., and Cleveland, D. E., “Time‐Stability Analysis of Trip Generation and Pre‐Distribution Mode‐Choice Models,” Transportation Research Record 569, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 1976, pp. 76–86.
32.
“Survey Findings, Chicago Area Transportation Study,” Vol. 1, Chicago, Ill., Dec., 1959.
33.
“A System Sensitive Approach for Forecasting Urbanized Area Travel Demand,” Alan M. Voorhees & Associates, Inc., final report submitted to U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C., Dec., 1971.
34.
Train, K., “A Comparison of the Predictive Ability of Mode Choice Models with Various Levels of Complexity,” Transportation Research, Vol. 13A, No. 1, 1979, pp. 11–16.
35.
“Travel Estimation Procedure for Quick Response to Urban Policy Issues,” Comsis Corp., NCHRP Report 186, 1978.
36.
Trip Generation Analysis, Indianapolis Regional Transportation and Development Study, 1966.
37.
Watson, P. L., and Westin, R. B., “Transferability of Disaggregate Mode Choice Models,” Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 5, No. 2, May 1975, pp. 229–249.
38.
Yunker, K. R., “Tests of the Temporal Stability of Travel Simulation Models in Southeastern Wisconsin,” Transportation Research Record 610, 1976, pp. 1–5.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 109 • Issue 4 • July 1983
Pages: 579 - 595
Copyright
Copyright © 1983 ASCE.
History
Published online: Jul 1, 1983
Published in print: Jul 1983
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.