Classification and Seismic Safety Evaluation of Existing Reinforced Concrete Columns

This study contributes to the critical need for safety assessment tools for existing reinforced concrete structures. Of particular concern is the possibility of collapse due to shear failure followed by axial failure of columns supporting gravity loads. This is a potential threat to a number of existing buildings in seismically active regions. Due to unavoidable uncertainties, drift capacity predictions can only be made in a probabilistic manner. This is addressed by the development of probabilistic drift capacity models at two performance levels: lateral strength degradation and axial load failure. First, a classification method is proposed to approximately distinguish between shear-dominated columns and flexure-dominated columns. Second, for each type of column, a probabilistic shear capacity model is developed by applying an existing Bayesian methodology to an experimental database. The focus of the presentation is on the physical insight gained from the model development. Third, a probabilistic model is developed for the drift capacity at axial load failure. Finally, the probabilistic drift capacity models are employed to develop fragility curves—with confidence bounds—that are utilized to assess the probability of failure implied by current seismic rehabilitation guidelines.