Simulation of Hurricane Risk in the U.S. Using Empirical Track Model
Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 126, Issue 10
Abstract
This paper describes a new technique for modeling hurricane risk in the United States. A storm track modeling approach is employed where, for each hurricane, the entire track as it crosses the ocean and makes landfall is modeled. The central pressure is modeled as a function of the sea surface temperature. The approach is validated through comparisons of simulated and observed key hurricane statistics (central pressure, translation speed, heading, and approach distance) along the U.S. coastline. The simulated and observed landfall rates of intense hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Scale 3 and higher) also are compared on a regional basis along the coast. The model is able to reproduce the continuously varying hurricane climatology along the U.S. coastline, and it provides a rational means for examining the hurricane risk for geographically distributed systems such as transmission lines and insurance portfolios.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 126 • Issue 10 • October 2000
Pages: 1222 - 1237
History
Received: Jan 26, 1998
Published online: Oct 1, 2000
Published in print: Oct 2000
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