Propagation of Certainty Levels
Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 110, Issue 9
Abstract
Uncertainty in basic structural parameters is characterized by objective and subjective information. A method was developed to quantify this uncertainty and propagate its effect through a structural reliability analysis. Certainty levels are established on the resulting failure probabilities. The concept of confidence intervals from classical statistics is extended to include both objective uncertainty, e.g., that due to limited sample size, and subjective uncertainty, e.g., data interpretation and extrapolation. The uncertainty is propagated by separating the objective and subjective information in the basic input random parameters and, also, in the calculated random probabilities. An example truss problem illustrates an application of the method.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Ang, A. H‐S., “Probabilistic Bases of Safety, Performance, and Design,” presented at the November 2–3, 1972, ASCE Specialty Conference on the Safety and Reliability of Metal Structures, held at Pittsburgh, Pa.
2.
Ang, A. H‐S., and Tang, W. H., Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Vol. I, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, N.Y., 1975.
3.
Baybutt, P., and Cox, D. C., “Methods for Uncertainty Analysis: A Comparative Survey,” Risk Analysis, Vol. 1, No. 4, 1981, pp. 251–258.
4.
Benjamin, J. R., and Cornell, C. A., Probability, Statistics, and Decisions for Civil Engineers, McGraw‐Hill, Inc., New York, N.Y., 1970.
5.
Ditlevsen, O., “Narrow Reliability Bounds for Structural Systems,” Journal of Structural Mechanics, Vol. 7, No. 4, 1979, pp. 453–472.
6.
Ellingwood, B. R., et al., “Development of a Probability Based Load Criterion for American National Standard A58,” National Bureau of Standards Special Publication 577, 1980.
7.
Ellingwood, B. R., and Ang, A. H‐S., “Risk‐Based Evaluation of Design Criteria,” Journal of the Structural Division, ASCE, Vol. 100, No. ST9, Paper 10778, Sept., 1974, pp. 1771–1787.
8.
Gorman, M., and Moses, F., “Direct Estimate of Structural System Reliability,” presented at the August 1979 7th Conference on Electronic Computation, ASCE, held at St. Louis, Mo.
9.
Hasofer, A. M., and Lind, N. C., “Exact and Invariant Second‐Moment Code Format,” Journal of the Engineering Mechanics Division, ASCE, Vol. 100, No. EM1, Paper 10376, Feb., 1974, pp. 111–121.
10.
Kennedy, R. P., et al., “Probability Seismic Safety Study of an Existing Nuclear Power Plant,” Nuclear Engineering and Design, Vol. 59, 1980, pp. 315–338.
11.
Leporati, Ezio, The Assessment of Structural Safety, Research Study Press, Forest Grove, Oreg., 1979.
12.
Mood, A. M., and Graybill, F. A., Introduction to the Theory of Statistics, McGraw‐Hill, Inc., New York, N.Y., 1974.
13.
PRA Procedures Guide, Review Draft, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG/CR‐2300, Sept. 28, 1981.
14.
Rackwitz, R., “Practical Probabilistic Approach to Design,” Technical University of Munich, Munich, W. Germany, May, 1976.
15.
“Rationalization of Safety and Serviceability Factors in Structural Codes,” CIRIA Report 63, Construction Industry Research and Information Assoc., London, England, 1977.
16.
Ravindra, M. K., and Galambos, T. V., “Load and Resistance Factor Design for Steel,” Journal of the Structural Division, ASCE, Vol. 104, No. ST6, Paper 1446, Sept., 1978, pp. 1337–1353.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
Copyright © 1984 ASCE.
History
Published online: Sep 1, 1984
Published in print: Sep 1984
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.