Risk Analysis for Dam Overtopping—Feitsui Reservoir as a Case Study
Publication: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 133, Issue 8
Abstract
Risk and uncertainty analysis by mathematical and statistical methods is often used to assess systematic risks and uncertainties. This research presents the procedure and application of risk and reliability analysis to dam overtopping. Annual maximum series of peak discharges of Feitsui Reservoir in northern Taiwan are used to analyze five extreme flood events with different frequencies. The highest water levels of the five extreme flood events were computed by using reservoir routing and considering seven factors subject to uncertainty. Afterward, the overtopping risk of Feitsui Dam was assessed by five uncertainty analysis methods: Rosenblueth’s point estimation method (RPEM), Harr’s point estimation method (HPEM), Monte Carlo simulation, Latin hypercube sampling, and the mean-value first-order second-moment (MFOSM) method. The results show that values of overtopping risk computed by different methods are similar. One may apply some approximated methods (MFOSM, HPEM and RPEM) to avoid the computational burden by applying sampling methods. Furthermore, the accuracy of results by approximated methods compared with that by sampling methods may differ from case to case. The selection and application of the uncertainty methods depend upon the information availability of the model parameters and model complexity. One may need to examine the model parameters and model complexity before determining appropriate methods to be used in a study.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The assistance from the Taipei Feitsui Reservoir Administrative Bureau and Water Resources Agency is gratefully acknowledged. The writers also thank the editor and reviewers for very helpful suggestions.
References
Ang, A. H., and Tang, W. H. (1984). “Probability concepts in engineering planning and design.” Decision: Risk and reliability, Vol. II, Wiley, New York.
Askew, J. A., Yeh, W.-G., and Hall, W. A. (1971). “Use of Monte Carlo techniques in the design and operation of a multipurpose reservoir system.” Water Resour. Res., 7(4), 819–826.
Borgman, L. E. (1963). “Risk criteria.” J. Wtrwy. and Harb. Div., 89(3), 1–35.
Chang, C. H., Tung, Y. K., and Yang, J. C. (1994). “Monte Carlo simulation for correlated variables with marginal distributions.” J. Hydraul. Eng., 120(3), 313–331.
Cornell, C. A. (1967). “Bounds on the reliability of structural systems.” J. Struct. Div., 93(1), 171–200.
Der Kiureghian, A., and Liu, P. L. (1986). “Structural reliability under incomplete probability information.” J. Eng. Mech., 112(1), 85–104.
Duckstein, L., and Borgardi, I. (1981). “Application of reliability theory to hydraulic engineering design.” J. Hydr. Div., 107(7), 799–815.
Harr, M. E. (1987). “Probabilities estimates for multivariate analyses.” Appl. Math. Model., 13, 313–318.
Lian, Y., and Yen, B. C. (2003). “Comparison of risk calculation methods for a culvert.” J. Hydraul. Eng., 129(2), 140–152.
Manache, G., and Melching, C. S. (2004). “Sensitivity analysis of a water-quality model using Latin hypercube sampling.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 130(3), 232–242.
McKay, M. D. (1988). “Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using a statistical sample of input values.” Uncertainty analysis, Y. Ronen, ed., CRC, Boca Raton, Fla., 145–186.
Melching, C. S. (1995). “Reliability estimation.” Computer models of watershed hydrology, V. P. Singh, ed., Chap. 3, Water Resources Publications, Littleton, Colo., 69–118.
Rackwitz, R., and Fiessler, B. (1978). “Structural reliability and combined random load sequences.” Comput. Struct., 9, 489–494.
Rosenblueth, E. (1975). “Point estimates for probability moments.” Proc., National Academy of Science, Washington, D.C., 3812–3814.
Rosenblueth, E. (1981). “Two point estimates in probabilities.” Appl. Math. Model., 5, 309–335.
Sinotech Consultant Engineering Company. (1978). “The 4th stage of Taipei water development project of water resources engineering planning.” Rep. to Northern Region Water Resources Office, Taiwan (in Chinese).
Tung, Y. K., and Mays, L. W. (1981). “Risk models for flood levee design.” Water Resour. Res., 17(4), 833–841.
Tung, Y. K., and Yen, B. C. (2005). Hydrosystems engineering reliability assessment and risk analysis, McGraw–Hill Professional, New York.
Warner, R. F., and Kabaila, A. P. (1968). “Monte Carlo study of structural safety.” J. Struct. Div., 94(12), 2847–2859.
Wood, E. F. (1977). “An analysis of flood levee reliability.” Water Resour. Res., 13(3), 665–671.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 133 • Issue 8 • August 2007
Pages: 955 - 963
Copyright
© 2007 ASCE.
History
Received: Mar 21, 2005
Accepted: Feb 20, 2007
Published online: Aug 1, 2007
Published in print: Aug 2007
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.