Simplified Dynamic Reliability Models for Hydraulic Design
Publication: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 124, Issue 3
Abstract
Two simplified dynamic reliability models for hydraulic design are developed, which consider both hydraulic and hydrologic uncertainties. To incorporate the safety factor into the reliability model properly, the actual design flood is introduced and defined as the product of the safety factor and the design flood. The reliability models represent unique relationships between actual design flood and reliability. If actual design floods are the same, regardless of changes between the safety factor and the design flood, the same reliability results are obtained by the simplified models, given that the service periods are identical. The simplified models can be reduced to the conventional reliability models when only hydrologic uncertainty is considered. The risk due to hydraulic uncertainty can be estimated from the difference of the reliability results by the conventional reliability models and those by the simplified models, i.e., the difference between single and total reliabilities. The simplified models can be used to design new hydraulic structures and to evaluate the reliability level for existing hydraulic structures.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Cunnane, C. (1992). Hydrological frequency and time series analysis, Section B, Vol. 1, International Postgraduate Hydrology Course, University College, Galway, Ireland.
2.
Haan, C. T. (1977). Statistical methods in hydrology. The Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa.
3.
Hall, W. A., and Howell, D. T.(1963). “Estimating flood probability within specific time intervals.”J. Hydro., Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 1(1), 265–271.
4.
Johnson, P. A.(1996). “Uncertainty of hydraulic parameters.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 122(2), 112–114.
5.
Lee, H. L., and Mays, L. W.(1983). “Improved risk and reliability model for hydraulic structures.”Water Resour. Res., 19(6), 1415–1422.
6.
Tang, W. H.(1980). “Bayesian frequency analysis.”J. Hydr. Div., ASCE, 106(7), 1203–1218.
7.
Tung, T. K.(1985). “Models for evaluating flow conveyance reliability of hydraulic structures.”Water Resour. Res., 21(10), 1463–1468.
8.
Tung, Y. K., and Mays, L. W. (1980a). “Optimal risk-based design for water resources engineering projects.”Tech. Rep. CRWR-171, Center for Res. in Water Resour., Univ. of Texas, Austin, Tex.
9.
Tung, Y. K., and Mays, L. W.(1980b). “Risk analysis for hydraulic design.”J. Hydr. Div., ASCE, 106(5), 893–913.
10.
Tung, Y. K., and Mays, L. W.(1981). “Risk models for flood levee design.”Water Resour. Res., 17(4), 833–841.
11.
Vrijling, J. K. (1987). “Probabilistic design of water-retaining structures.”Engineering reliability and risk in water resources, L. Duckstein and E. J. Plate, eds., Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 115–134.
12.
Whitman, R. V.(1984). “Evaluating calculated risk in geotechnical engineering.”J. Geotech. Engrg., ASCE, 110(2), 145–188.
13.
Yen, B. C.(1970). “Risks in hydrologic design of engineering projects.”J. Hydr. Div., ASCE, 96(4), 959–966.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
Copyright © 1998 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Mar 1, 1998
Published in print: Mar 1998
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.