Uncertainty of Hydraulic Parameters
Publication: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 122, Issue 2
Abstract
Reliability analysis and other probabilistic techniques are becoming increasingly important tools in hydraulic modeling and decision making. Probabilistic and reliability analyses are based on knowledge of the underlying parameter uncertainties. Hydraulic variables, such as roughness coefficient, channel slope, and critical shear stress, common to many hydraulic-engineering problems, are known to contain considerable uncertainty. However, careful evaluation of the levels of uncertainty has not been conducted for many of these and other variables. Therefore, the underlying assumptions of uncertainty for a reliability-based design may be in error, causing significant error in the computed reliability or probability of failure. The main objective of the present study is to quantify various hydraulic parameter uncertainties in terms of the coefficients of variation and associated distributions. Significant advances are being made in reliability and probabilistic methods and their use in hydraulic and hydrologic engineering is rapidly increasing. If the uncertainties that underlie any of these methods cannot be properly defined, the results of the reliability analysis are inaccurate.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
“Accuracy of Computed Water Surface Profiles.” (1986). U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Hydraulic Engineering Center, Davis, Calif.
2.
Ang, A. H., and Tang, W. H. (1984). Probability concepts in engineering planning and design, volume II—decision, risk, and reliability . John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, N.Y.
3.
Bechteler, W., and Maurer, M. (1992). “Reliability theory applied to sediment transport formulae.”Proc., 6th IAHR International Symposium on Stochastic Hydraulics, Taipei, Republic of China, 115–122.
4.
Cesare, M. A.(1991). “First-order analysis of open-channel flow.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 117(2), 242–247.
5.
Efron, B. (1982). The Jackknife, the Bootstrap, and Other Resampling Plans . Soc. for Int. and Appl. Mathematics, Philadelphia, Pa.
6.
Johnson, P. A.(1992). “Reliability-based pier scour engineering.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 118(10), 1344–1358.
7.
Johnson, P. A., and Ayyub, B. M.(1992). “Assessment of time-variant bridge reliability due to pier scour.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 118(6), 887–903.
8.
Lee, H. L., and Mays, L. W.(1986). “Hydraulic uncertainties in flood levee capacity.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 112(10), 928–934.
9.
Mays, L. W., and Tung, Y. K. (1992). Hydrosystems engineering and management . McGraw-Hill Book Co., Inc., New York, N.Y.
10.
Tung, Y. K.(1990). “Mellin transform applied to uncertainty analysis in hydrology/hydraulics.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 116(5), 659–674.
11.
Yang, J. C., Tarng, S. Y., and Tung, Y. K. (1993). “Analyzing uncertainty of IUH of Nash.”Proc., 1993 ASCE Conf. of Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, New York, N.Y., 1927–1932.
12.
Yeh, K. C., and Tung, Y. K.(1993). “Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of pit-migration model.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 119(2), 262–283.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
Copyright © 1996 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Feb 1, 1996
Published in print: Feb 1996
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.