Spatial Disaggregation for Studies of Climatic Hydrologic Sensitivity
Publication: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 120, Issue 12
Abstract
The use of deterministic atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) to understand potential global climate change under doubled forcing has prompted a need for better understanding of local hydrologic impacts. Incongruities in model resolutions do not allow for GCM output to be directly used as forcing in the smaller‐scale hydrologic models. In this work, daily spatial disaggregation techniques are applied to the upper Rio Grande basin in Colorado, simulating local temperature and precipitation regimes, and preserving spatial covariance structures at all spatial scales. Canadian Climate Centre GCM output is disaggregated to site‐specific locations within the study basin. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is then used to examine hydrologic sensitivity under the disaggregated climate forcing. The results from this sensitivity indicate that under spatially disaggregated, site‐specific, climatic forcing, significant snowpack‐accumulation decreases occur. This results in total annual runoff decreases of, on average, 17.7%. A seasonal shift toward earlier in the year is observed in peak runoff, soil moisture storage, and evapotranspiration.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Avery, M. A., and Leavesley, G. H. (1988). “Assessment of the potential effects of climate change on water resources of the Delaware River Basin: work plan for 1986–1990.” USGS Open File Rep. 88‐478, U.S. Geological Survey.
2.
Bardossy, A., and Plate, E. J. (1992). “Space‐time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric circulation patterns.” Water Resour. Res., 28(5).
3.
Barros, A. P., and Lettenmaier, D. P. (1993). “Multiscale aggregation and disaggregation of precipitation for regional hydroclimatological studies.” Proc., IAHS Meeting, Yokohama, Japan (in print).
4.
Boer, G. J., McFarlane, N. A., Laprise, R., Henderson, J. D., and Blanchet, J. P. (1984). “The Canadian climate centre spectral atmospheric general circulation model.” Atmosphere‐Ocean, 4.
5.
Brendecke, C. M., Laihoh, D. R., and Holden, D. C. (1985). “Comparison of two daily streamflow simulation models of an alpine watershed.” J. Hydro., 77.
6.
Cooley, K. R. (1990). “Effects of CO2‐induced climatic changes on snowpack and streamflow.” Hydro. Sci., 35.
7.
Doeskin, N. J., Kleist, J. D., and McKee, T. B. (1983). “Use of the Palmer index and other water supply indexes for drought monitoring in Colorado.” Climatology Rep. 83‐3, Colorado Climate Ctr., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colo.
8.
Fontaine, R. A. (1987). “Application of a precipitation‐runoff modeling system in the Bald Mountain area, Aroostook County, Maine.” USGS Water‐Resour. Investigations Rep. 87‐4221, U.S. Geological Survey.
9.
Gan, T. Y., and Burges, S. J. (1990). “An assessment of a conceptual rainfall‐runoff models ability to represent the dynamics of small hypothetical catchements, 1. models, model properties, and experimental design.” Water Resour. Res., 26(7).
10.
Giorgi, F., and Mearns, L. O. (1991). “Approaches to the simulation of regional climate change: a review.” Rev. Geophys., 29(2).
11.
Gleik, P. H. (1987). “Regional hydrologic consequences of increases in atmospheric and other trace gases.” Climatic Change, 10.
12.
Hay, L. E., McCabe, G. J. Jr., Wolock, D. M., and Ayers, M. A. (1992). “Use of weather types to disaggregate general circulation model predictions.” J. Geophysical Res., 97(D3).
13.
Hearne, G. A., and Dewey, J. D. (1988). “Hydrologic analysis of the Rio Grande Basin north of Embudo, New Mexico, Colorado and New Mexico.” USGS Water Resour. Investigations Rep. 86–4113, U.S. Geological Survey.
14.
Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., and Ephraums, J. J. (1990). Climate change—the IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge University Press, London, England.
15.
Kuhn, G. (1988). “Application of the U.S. Geological Survey's precipitation‐runoff modeling system to Williams Draw and Bush Draw Basins, Jackson County, Colorado.” USGS Water‐Resour. Investigations Rep. 88–4013, U.S. Geological Survey.
16.
Lane, W. L. (1979). Applied stochastic techniques—user's manual. Div. of Plng. and Tech. Services, Engrg. Res. Ctr., U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, Colo.
17.
Leavesley, G. H., Litchty, R. W., Troutman, B. M., and Saindon, L. G. (1983). Precipitation‐runoff modeling system: user's manual. USGS Water‐Resour. Investigations Rep. 83‐4238, U.S. Geological Survey.
18.
Lettenmaier, D. P., and Gan, T. Y. (1990). “Hydrologic sensitivities of the Sacramento—San Joaquin River Basin, California, to global warming.” Water Resour Res., 26(1).
19.
Mejía, J. M., and Rousselle, J. (1976). “Disaggregation models in hydrology revisited.” Water Resour. Res., 12(2).
20.
Nash, L. L., and Gleik, P. H. (1991). “Sensitivity of streamflow in the Colorado Basin to climatic changes.” J. Hydro., 125.
21.
Nash, J. E., and Sutcliffe, J. V. (1970). “River flow forecasting through conceptual models, 1. a discussion of principles.” J. Hydro., 10.
22.
Salas, J. D., Delleur, J. W., Yevjevich, V., and Lane, W. L. (1980). Modelling of hydrologic time series. Water Resources Publications, Littleton, Colo.
23.
Santos, E. G. (1983). “Disaggregation modelling and hydrologic time series,” PhD thesis, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colo.
24.
Valencia, D. R., and Schaake, J. C. (1972). “A disaggregation model for time series analysis and synthesis.” Rep. No. 149, Ralph M. Parsons Lab. of Water Resour. and Hydrodynamics, MIT, Cambridge, Mass.
25.
Valencia, D. R., and Schaake, J. C. (1973). “Disaggregation processes in stochastic hydrology.” Water Resour. Res., 9(3).
26.
Wagonner, P. (1990). Climate change and U.S. water resources. John Wiley and Sons, New York, N.Y.
27.
Young, G. K., and Pisanno, W. C. (1986). “Operational hydrology using residuals.” J. Hydr. Div., ASCE, 4.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
Copyright © 1994 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 30, 1993
Published online: Dec 1, 1994
Published in print: Dec 1994
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.