TECHNICAL PAPERS
Jan 1, 1983

Conservatism of Probable Maximum Flood Estimates

Publication: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 109, Issue 3

Abstract

Depending on assumptions and data used in analysis, a probable maximum flood (PMF) can vary over a wide range of values each associated with a certain degree of conservatism. This paper presents a procedure which potentially can be used to determine the relative conservatism of a PMF estimate. By knowing how conservative the PMF is in the range of possible estimates, the engineer will be able to make a better decision as to how it should be used in designing the structure.

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References

1.
Alexander, G. N., discussion of “Hydrology of Spillway Design: Large Structures—Adequate Data,” by V. A. Koelzer and M. Bitoun, Journal of the Hydraulics Division, ASCE, Vol. 91, No. HY1, Jan., 1965, pp. 211–219.
2.
Benson, M. A., discussion of “Hydrology of Spillway Design: Large Structures—Adequate Data,” by V. A. Koelzer and M. Bitoun, Journal of the Hydraulics Division, ASCE, Vol. 90, No. HY5, Sept., 1964, pp. 297–300.
3.
Benson, M. A., “Thoughts on the Design of Design Floods,” Proceedings of the Second International Symposium in Hydrology, Fort Collins, Colo., Sept. 11–13, 1972, pp. 27–33.
4.
Biswas, A. K., “The Philosophy of Estimating Spillway Design Floods,” Engineering Journal, Jan., 1969, pp. 20–24.
5.
Design of Small Dams, 2nd edition, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Washington, D.C., 1973, p. 64.
6.
Hershfield, D. M., “Estimating the Probable Maximum Precipitation,” Transactions, ASCE, Vol. 128, Part I, Paper No. 3431, pp. 534–556.
7.
Hershfield, D. M., “Method for Estimating Probable Maximum Rainfall,” Journal of American Water Works Association, Vol. 57, No. 8, pp. 965–972.
8.
Johnson, W. E., “Hop Brook Dam and Reservoir, Hop Brook, Housatonic River Basin, Connecticut,” Design Memorandum No. 1‐Hydrology, Office of the Chief of Engineers, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, D.C., 1964.
9.
Linsley, R. K., Jr., Kohler, M. A., and Paulhus, J. L. H., Hydrology for Engineers, 2nd ed., McGraw‐Hill Book Co. Inc., New York, N.Y., 1975, pp. 245–247.
10.
“National Program for Inspection of Non‐Federal Dams,” ER 1110‐1‐106, Appendix D, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, D.C., Sept., 1979.
11.
“Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates, Colorado River and Great Basin Drainages,” Hydrometeorological Report No. 49, U.S. National Weather Service, Washington, D.C., 1977.
12.
“Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates, United States, East of the 105th Meridian,” Hydrometeorological Report No. 51, U.S. National Weather Services, Washington, D.C., 1964.
13.
“Reevaluating Spillway Adequacy of Existing Dams,” The Task Committee on the Reevaluation of the Adequacy of Spillways of Existing Dams of the Committee on Hydrometeorology of the Flydraulics Division, Journal of the Hydraulics Division, Vol. 99, No. HY2, Feb., 1973, pp. 337–372.
14.
“South Platte River Basin Study, Above Cheesman Dam, Colorado,” Part I: Probable Maximum Precipitation, and Part II: Probable Maximum Flood, Harza Engineering Co., Chicago, Ill., 1982.

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Go to Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 109Issue 3January 1983
Pages: 400 - 408

History

Published online: Jan 1, 1983
Published in print: Jan 1983

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Authors

Affiliations

Bi‐Huei Wang, M. ASCE
Principal Hydro., Harza Engrg. Co., Chicago, Ill.
Russell W. Revell, F. ASCE
Consultant Hydro.; Formerly Principal Hydro., Harza Engrg. Co., Chicago, Ill.

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