Uncertainty in the National Energy Modeling System. II: Analysis of Results
Publication: Journal of Energy Engineering
Volume 121, Issue 3
Abstract
This is the second of two papers on characterizing the uncertainty present in key elements of the U.S. Department of Energy's new National Energy Modeling System. The theory behind the assessment procedures developed was described in the first paper, and the current work presents the important numerical results and analyses of our experiments, all done as a collaborative effort between the Energy Information Administration, the Washington Consulting Group, and the School of Information Technology and Engineering of George Mason University. The method testing involved the three most important National Energy Modeling System submodel types, namely, linear optimization, econometric, and heuristic or balance equations. The results of using the uncertainty procedures on the Energy Information Administration's transportation sector demand and petroleum market models are provided here.
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References
1.
Baghelai, C., Moumen, F., Cohen, M., Kydes, A., and Harris, C. M.(1995). “Characterizing uncertainty in the National Energy Modeling System. I: Method development.”J. Energy Engrg., ASCE, 121(3), 108–124.
2.
Morgan, M. G., and Henrion, M. (1990). Uncertainty, a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis, Cambridge University Press, England.
3.
“Transportation sector component design report.” (1993). Rep., Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C.
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Copyright © 1995 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Dec 1, 1995
Published in print: Dec 1995
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