Empirical Stochastic Silo Load Model. II: Data Analysis

Pressure data obtained in experiments with an existing grain silo are used to estimate the parameters of a stochastic silo load model formulated by the first two authors in the first of three papers. The estimation procedure is based on the method of maximum likelihood as applied to point observations of a Gaussian random field with unknown distribution parameters. The justification of this method is not based on superior scientific reasoning, but rather on a pragmatic principle: The family of interpolation curves between the measured data are required to satisfy whatever given regularity conditions (continuity, differentiability, etc.) in as simple a way as possible without being in conflict with the data. If by visual inspection these interpolation curves are judged to be reasonable from an engineering point of view, then also the corresponding silo load model should be acceptable as the basis for a reliability analysis of the silo wall. Generally, this procedure leads to a conservative assessment of the reliability. This is demonstrated in the third paper.