Calibration of a Continuous Simulation Fecal Coliform Model Based on Historical Data Analysis
Publication: Journal of Environmental Engineering
Volume 133, Issue 7
Abstract
Since 1984, the major water reclamation plants discharging to the Chicago Waterway System (CWS) have not disinfected their effluents. The possible addition of disinfection at these plants is the subject of an ongoing use attainability analysis (UAA). For the UAA, Escherichia coli (E. coli) is used as the indicator of bacterial contamination. However, only a few years of E. coli data are available for the CWS and the treatment plants discharging to the CWS. Thus, it was decided to develop a model based on fecal coliforms for which more data are available and to develop a relation between fecal coliform and E. coli counts for the CWS. A 1:1 relation was found between fecal coliform and E. coli counts in the CWS by Limnotech (2004, written communication) as part of the UAA. In order to evaluate the effects of possible disinfection measures on fecal coliform and related E. coli counts in the CWS, a simple first-order fecal coliform decay model was added to the continuous-simulation flow-water quality model DUFLOW applied to the CWS system. Due to the limited amount (monthly samples) of measured fecal coliform concentration data for the CWS, a reasonable calibration of the model would have been difficult to achieve based on the traditional trial and error method. In this paper, a new concept of model parameter estimation based on historical data analysis and its application to model calibration is presented. The fecal coliform decay rate was estimated for every reach of the CWS based on analysis of historical data (1990–2003) between each two consecutive sampling locations and the related travel time between these stations. The fecal coliform decay rate then was determined on the basis of many years (14 years, in this case) of monthly fecal coliform samples rather than the few monthly samples taken in a typical calibration period. The results obtained indicate that the calibration process was successful, and a good match between measured and simulated fecal coliform concentrations at almost all locations along the CWS is achieved with one model run for several multiple month periods in 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2002.
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Acknowledgments
The work reported here was supported by Grant No. 3001148 from the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago to Marquette University. This support is gratefully acknowledged.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Environmental Engineering
Volume 133 • Issue 7 • July 2007
Pages: 681 - 691
Copyright
© 2007 ASCE.
History
Received: Oct 4, 2005
Accepted: Feb 27, 2007
Published online: Jul 1, 2007
Published in print: Jul 2007
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