TECHNICAL PAPERS
Jun 14, 2002

Sensitivity of Watershed Runoff under Humid Conditions to Potential Climate Variations

Publication: Journal of Environmental Engineering
Volume 128, Issue 7

Abstract

A semidistributed watershed model is applied over the Mahantango Creek catchment in Pennsylvania to estimate future changes in direct runoff under 22 different climate scenarios. It is shown how different subcatchments of the watershed may respond to possible changes in the precipitation and temperature regimes. Subcatchments with the most unfavorable future runoff responses can be identified where possible changes in land use management practices may be suggested.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

References

Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., and Reinsel, G. C. (1994). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control, 3rd Ed., Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.
Brutsaert, W., and Nieber, J. L.(1977). “Regionalized drought flow hydrographs from a mature glaciated plateau.” Water Resour. Res., 13(3), 637–643.
Brutsaert, W., and Parlange, M. B.(1998). “Hydrologic cycle explains the evaporation paradox.” Nature (London), 396, 30.
Easterling, D. R.(1999). “Development of regional climate scenarios using a downscaling approach.” Climat. Change, 41, 615–634.
Fraser, R. H., Barten, P. K., and Pinney, D. A. K.(1998). “Predicting stream pathogen loading from livestock using a geographical information system-based delivery model.” J. Environ. Qual., 27, 935–945.
Graczyk, T. K., Evans, B. M., Shiff, C. J., Karreman, H. J., and Patz, J. A.(2000). “Environmental and geographical factors contributing to watershed contamination with Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts.” Environ. Res., A82, 263–271.
Hinkley, D. V.(1977). “On quick choice of power transform.” Appl. Stat., 26, 67–69.
Houghton, J. T., Meira-Filho, L. G., Callander, B. A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K., eds. (1996). Climate Change 1995, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K.
Hoxie, N. J., Davis, J. P., Vergeront, J. M., Nashold, R. D., and Blair, K. A.(1997). “Cryptosporidiosis-associated mortality following a massive waterborne outbreak in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.” Am. J. Public Health, 87(12), 2032–2035.
Karl, T. R., Knight, R. W., Easterling, D. R., and Quayle, R. G.(1996). “Indices of climate change for the United States.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77(2), 279–291.
Katz, R. W.(1996). “Use of conditional stochastic models to generate climate change scenarios.” Climat. Change, 32, 237–255.
Katz, R. W., and Parlange, M. B.(1993). “Effects of an index of atmospheric circulation on stochastic properties of precipitation.” Water Resour. Res., 29(7), 2335–2344.
Katz, R. W., and Parlange, M. B.(1995). “Generalizations of chain-dependent processes: Application to hourly precipitation.” Water Resour. Res., 31(5), 1331–1341.
MacKenzie, W. R., Hoxie, N. J., Proctor, M. E., Gradus, M. S., Blair, K. A., Peterson, D. E., Kazmierczak, J. J., Addiss, D. G., Fox, K. R., and Rose, J. B.(1994). “A massive outbreak in Milwaukee of Cryptosporidium infection transmitted through the public water supply.” N. Engl. J. Med., 331(3), 161–167.
Manabe, S.(1997). “Study of global warming by GFDL climate models.” Ambio, 26, 47–51.
Mearns, L. O., Rosenzweig, C., and Goldberg, R.(1997). “Mean and variance change in climate scenarios: methods, agricultural applications, and measures of uncertainty.” Climat. Change, 35, 367–396.
Parlange, M. B., and Katz, R. W.(2000). “An extended version of the Richardson model for simulating daily weather variables.” J. Appl. Meteorol., 39, 610–622.
Richardson, C. W.(1981). “Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation.” Water Resour. Res., 17(2), 182–190.
Szilagyi, J., and Parlange, M. B.(1999). “A geomorphology-based semi-distributed watershed model.” Adv. Water Resour., 23, 177–187.
U.K. Dept. of the Environment. (1990). “Cryptosporidium in water supplies.” Rep., Department of Health, London.
U.S. National Research Council. (2000). “Reconciling observations of global temperature change.” 〈http://books.nap.edu/catalog/9755.html〉.
Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C., and Moss, R. H., eds. (1996). Climate change 1995, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K.
Weniger, B. G., Blaser, M. J., Gedrose, J., Lippy, E. C., and Juranek, D. D.(1983). “An outbreak of waterborne giardiasis associated with heavy water runoff due to warm weather and volcanic ashfall.” Am. J. Public Health, 73(8), 868–872.
Wilks, D. S.(1992). “Adapting stochastic weather generation algorithms for climate change studies.” Climat. Change, 22, 67–84.
Woolhiser, D. A., Keefer, T. O., and Redmond, K. T.(1993). “Southern oscillation effects on daily precipitation in the southwestern United States.” Water Resour. Res., 29(4), 1287–1295.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Journal of Environmental Engineering
Journal of Environmental Engineering
Volume 128Issue 7July 2002
Pages: 635 - 642

History

Received: Apr 12, 2001
Accepted: Nov 13, 2001
Published online: Jun 14, 2002
Published in print: Jul 2002

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Authors

Affiliations

Jozsef Szilagyi
Assistant Professor, Univ. of Nebraska–Lincoln, Conserva tion and Survey Division, Lincoln, NE 68588-0517.
Marc B. Parlange
Professor, Dept. of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD 21218-2686.
Jonathan A. Patz
Assistant Professor, Dept. of Environmental Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205.
Thaddeus K. Graczyk
Associate Scientist, Dept. of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD 21205.

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

Cited by

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share