TECHNICAL PAPERS
Dec 1, 2008

Parametric Range Estimating of Building Costs Using Regression Models and Bootstrap

Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 134, Issue 12

Abstract

This paper presents a bootstrap approach for integration of parametric and probabilistic cost estimation techniques. In the proposed method, a combination of regression analysis and bootstrap resampling technique is used to develop range estimates for construction costs. The method is applied to parametric range estimation of building projects as an example. The bootstrap approach includes advantages of probabilistic and parametric estimation methods, at the same time it requires fewer assumptions compared to classical statistical techniques. This study is of relevance to practitioners and researchers, as it provides a robust method for conceptual estimation of construction costs.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

References

AbouRizk, S. M., Babey, G. M., and Karumanasseri, G. (2002). “Estimating the cost of capital projects: An empirical study of accuracy levels for municipal government projects.” Can. J. Civ. Eng., 29(5), 653–661.
Adeli, H., and Wu, M. (1998). “Regularization neural network for construction cost estimation.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 124(1), 18–24.
Belsley, D. A., Kuh, E., and Welsch, R. (1980). Regression diagnostics: Identifying influential data and sources of collinearity, Wiley, New York.
Chatterjee, S., and Price, B. (1991). Regression diagnostics, Wiley, New York.
Christoffersen, P., and Goncalves, S. (2005). “Estimation risk in financial risk management.” J. Risk, 7(3), 1–28.
Curran, M. W. (1989). “Range estimating: Contingencies with confidence.” Transactions of Annual Meeting of Assoc. for Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE), B.7.1–B.7.4.
Damnjanovic, I., and Zhang, Z. (2006). “Determination of required falling weight deflectometer testing frequency for pavement structural evaluation at the network level.” J. Transp. Eng., 132(1), 76–85.
Davison, A. C., and Hinkley, D. V. (1997). Bootstrap methods and their application, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
Diekmann, J. E. (1983). “Probabilistic estimating: Mathematics and applications.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 109(3), 297–308.
Efron, B., and Tibshirani, R. (1993). An introduction to the bootstrap, Chapman and Hall, New York.
Hegazy, T., and Ayed, A. (1998). “Neural network model for parametric cost estimation of highway projects.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 124(3), 210–218.
Hudak, D., and Maxwell, M. (2007). “A macro approach to estimating correlated random variables in engineering production projects.” Constr. Manage. Econom. 25(8), 883–892.
Isidore, J. L., and Back, W. E. (2002). “Multiple simulation analysis for probabilistic cost and schedule integration.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 128(3), 211–219.
Johnson, R. W. (2001). “An introduction to bootstrap.” Teaching Statistics, 23(2), 49–54.
Kaiser, M. J. (2006). “Offshore decommissioning cost estimation in the Gulf of Mexico.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 132(3), 249–258.
Karshenas, S. (1984). “Predesign cost estimating method for multistory buildings.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 110(1), 79–86.
Kim, G. H., Seo, D. S., and Kang, K. I. (2005). “Hybrid models of neural networks and genetic algorithms for predicting preliminary cost estimates.” J. Comput. Civ. Eng., 19(2), 208–211.
Kouskoulas, V., and Koehn, E. (1974). “Predesign cost-estimation function for buildings.” J. Constr. Div., 100(CO4), 589–604.
Lowe, D. J., Emsley, M. W., and Harding, A. (2006). “Predicting construction cost using multiple regression techniques.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 132(7), 750–758.
Marsala, C., Pallotta, M., and Zenti, R. (2004). “Integrated risk management with a filtered bootstrap approach.” Economic Notes, 33(3), 375–398.
Moselhi, O., and Dimitrov, B. (1993). “Discussion of ‘Monte Carlo technique with correlated random variables’ by A. Touran and E. Wiser.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 119(3), 658–660.
Oberlender, G. D., and Trost, S. M. (2001). “Predicting accuracy of early cost estimates based on estimate quality.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 127(3), 173–182.
R.S. Means Company. (1996). Means building construction cost data, Kingston, Mass.
Skitmore, M., and Ng, S. T. (2002). “Analytical and approximate variance of total project cost.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 128(5), 456–460.
Sonmez, R. (2004). “Conceptual cost estimation of building projects with regression analysis and neural networks.” Can. J. Civ. Eng., 31(4), 677–683.
Tasker, G. D., and Dunne, P. (1997). “Bootstrap position analysis for forecasting low flow frequency.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 123(6), 359–367.
Touran, A., and Wiser, E. (1992). “Monte Carlo technique with correlated random variables.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 118(2), 258–272.
Wang, W. C. (2002). “SIM-UTILITY: Model for project ceiling price determination.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 128(1), 76–84.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 134Issue 12December 2008
Pages: 1011 - 1016

History

Received: Aug 25, 2006
Accepted: Jul 1, 2008
Published online: Dec 1, 2008
Published in print: Dec 2008

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Authors

Affiliations

Rifat Sonmez [email protected]
Assistant Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Middle East Tech. Univ., Ankara, 06531, Turkey. Email: [email protected]

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

Cited by

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share