CTAN for Risk Assessments Using Multilevel Stochastic Networks
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 133, Issue 1
Abstract
Measuring projects’ cost and schedule risks in an integrated framework using simulation has several modeling challenges that have yet to be addressed by researchers. This paper presents a multilevel network modeling approach that aims to integrate a combination of different networks in one framework, and presents a computer simulation implementation to the cost and time risk assessment network (CTAN). The CTAN is an integrated network that includes uncertainties in the realization of the schedule logic, in activities durations, in project scope, and in cost. The simulation model is a decision support simulation system (DSSS) that currently consists of three modules: the CTAN, the stochastic decision trees, and the stochastic shortest/longest rout network. The CTAN-DSSS may be used in cost and schedule risk assessment. It completely integrates with other DSSS networks and deals with risks associated with cost, time, and scope at equal importance. The DSSS was verified by conducting several tests and validated by its extensive use for both undergraduate and graduate courses in Civil Engineering at the University of Calgary over the last three years.
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Acknowledgments
The writers acknowledge the funding of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada’s Research Grant Programs—Individual for “Comprehensive Modeling Framework for Managing Construction Projects.” The writers wish to acknowledge Dr. Simaan AbouRizk, NSERC/Alberta Construction Industry Research Chair for his permission to use Simphony to develop DSSS and to use it for teaching purposes.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 133 • Issue 1 • January 2007
Pages: 96 - 101
Copyright
© 2007 ASCE.
History
Received: Aug 5, 2004
Accepted: Apr 3, 2006
Published online: Jan 1, 2007
Published in print: Jan 2007
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