Risk Assessment in Construction Schedules
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 125, Issue 1
Abstract
Construction projects are initiated in complex and dynamic environments resulting in circumstances of high uncertainty and risk, which are compounded by demanding time constraints. This paper describes a systematic way to consider and quantify uncertainty in construction schedules. The system incorporates knowledge and experience acquired from many experts, project-specific information, decision analysis techniques, and a mathematical model to estimate the amount of risk in a construction schedule at the initiation of a project. The model provides the means for sensitivity analyses for different outcomes wherein the effect of critical and significant risk factors can be evaluated. The paper focuses on lessons learned from past projects and describes a risk assessment process involving typical inputs and expected outputs. The paper also briefly reviews the information technology of HyperCard and Excel, which were used to develop the system.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 125 • Issue 1 • January 1999
Pages: 8 - 15
History
Received: Apr 29, 1997
Published online: Jan 1, 1999
Published in print: Jan 1999
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